• Market Round Up: U.S. stocks hovered close to all-time highs, as strong corporate earnings and improving risk sentiment supported markets. The S&P 500 rose +1.1%, Nasdaq 100 jumped +1.6%, while the Stoxx 600 ended -0.4%. About 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten earnings expectations, bolstering investor confidence. Chipmakers climbed for a 16th consecutive session, the longest streak on record, reflecting renewed optimism around AI. President Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran helped revive risk appetite, though tensions remain elevated around the Strait of Hormuz. In corporate news, Tesla beat earnings estimates, with management flagging a significant capex increase. Cannabis stocks jumped amid reports that the U.S. Justice Department is set to move marijuana into a less restrictive federal classification. Google Cloud unveiled a new in-house AI chip designed to improve the speed and efficiency of AI workloads. GE Vernova, one of the few global producers of large-scale natural gas turbines, shares rose after its electrification unit posted strong grid-equipment sales to data-center customers, surpassing last year’s total in the first quarter alone. TSMC plans to delay the rollout of ASML’s most advanced chipmaking tools until 2029 to curb costs, a potential headwind for ASML. In macro news, MBA mortgage applications increased last week as lower financing costs offered a cautious sign of progress in the housing market. Consumer confidence in the euro area drops to its lowest level in three years to -20.6 vs -17.2 est.
• Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities - Asian markets are trading risk-off, with equities broadly lower across the region, with China down 0.2%, Hong Kong down 0.9% and Japan down 0.6%. Energy is the key macro driver as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, reinforcing concerns over prolonged shipping disruptions and tighter physical crude supply, with mine clearing potentially taking months. On today’s U.S. macro calendar, US Initial Jobless Claims and US Manufacturing and Services PMI’s is expected to show modest improvement. In Europe, PMIs for UK, France, Germany, and the euro area are expected to show declines MoM. 1Q26 earnings Intel, American Express, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Newmont and Sanofi .
• Stocks in focus: L’Oreal (Overweight €410 +19% Upside) - Commentary on solid Q1 sales print. Nestle (Overweight CHF90 +19% Upside) - Update post healthy Q1 sales print.
• Bonds:  Yesterday. the 10-year Treasury yield increased by one basis point to 4.30%, Germany’s benchmark yield was broadly unchanged at 3.01%, and the UK’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.91%. This morning, core yields are mostly stable, with Treasuries mildly higher and Europe largely consolidating after recent volatility. Today’s central bank speakers include Nagel (ECB).
• Commodities: Yesterday, WTI rose 3.2% to $92.55 a barrel, while gold rose 0.4% to $4,739 an ounce. Brent crude surged to around $102, highlighting lingering concerns over Middle East. Brent crude remains elevated at around $103 a barrel, supported by ongoing Middle East supply risks. Gold is slightly lower, easing back to around $4,730 an ounce, as safe-haven demand cools and the dollar firms.

• Asset Allocation Q3 2023
• Focus Feature: Outright recession looking for world economy
• Wealth Management: A pension is for life, not just the pay and file deadline.
• Analyst Conviction List: The investment case for our preferred names.
• The Fund Edit: Latest update on our range of investment funds, ETFs and trusts.
• Ethical Investing: Green Effects providing sustainable investment returns.

Opportunities this week:

• TotalEnergies - (Overweight PT €74.00 8.8% upside) – PT upgrade and implications from Iran War
• Shell (Overweight PT 3400p 8.5% upside) – PT upgrade and implications from Iran War
• Glanbia (Overweight PT €18.70 +10% Upside) - Update following meeting with IR team post FY25 Results