• Macro: Global Equity Markets had a relatively mixed day yesterday, with the US up and Europe down. The S&P500 ended +0.32% whilst the Nasdaq and Dow Jones finished up +0.25% and +0.53% respectively. Market reaction was initially negative to news that President Trump was ready to fire Fed Chairman Jay Powell, however later in the day those reports were refuted. European stocks traded lower on the day, down -0.57% after ASML posted muted earnings and an unclear outlook. Economic releases today include final Eurozone CPI for the month of June, with the rate expected to remain at 2.0% annualised. The MoM increase is expected to remain at 0.3%. Irish trade balances for May will be released also. In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended 12th July will be released today (est. 234k claims and 227k prior). The US import price index for June will also be released (est. 0.3%). For central bank speakers the ECB’s Villeroy will speak in Paris, whilst the Fed’s speakers include Kugler, who will speak on the housing market, Cook will speak on AI and innovation and Waller, who will talk on the US economic outlook. 
• Stock: We have an update on Diageo. (see page 2)
• Debt: Core bond yields in the US declined despite the volatility around the Trump and Powell headlines as US PPI came in weaker than expected. European yields were mixed with UK Gilts slightly rising after an unexpected inflation increase.

Opportunities this week:

• We are reiterating our BUY rating on Deere as we believe that near-term consensus earnings estimates for the company are too conservative and that the long-term tailwinds for the business are not reflected in its discounted valuation.
• Last week, we issued an updated research note on Grafton Group, reiterating our BUY rating with an unchanged price target of £11.50, which provides 24% for investors.
• Following the stock’s poor performance last week (-5.4%) and ahead of its Q3 numbers that will be released on 25th April (Thursday) we are highlighting our Buy recommendation on Microsoft.