• Equity Markets: Global equities started the week higher despite growing concerns over a US government shutdown and potential delay of labour market data. The S&P500 rose +0.26%, the Nasdaq jumped +0.48% whilst European stocks increased +0.13%. In the US nine of eleven sectors were positive with 61.2% of companies higher on the day. Consumer Discretionary (+0.55%) and Information Technology (+0.49%) were the strongest. Energy (-1.91%) and Communication Services (-0.46%) were the weakest. Electronic Arts agreed a $55bn deal (c.$210 per share, 25% premium) to go private to a consortium including the Saudi Arabia PIF and Silver Lake Management. In Europe nine of eleven sectors were positive on the day with 62% of stocks moving higher. Consumer Discretionary (+1.13%) and Health Care (+1.02%) were the strongest. Energy (-1.73%) and Financials (-0.18%) were the weakest. Carnival PLC the cruise ship operator had a noticeable weak day with shares down (-4.48%) as managements comments relating to higher costs heading into 2026 were not well received by the market.
• Macro: In macro news yesterday US Vice President JD Vance admitted he expects a government shutdown after President Trump met with top congressional lawmakers yesterday and failed to resolve Democrats demands around the budget. Final EU Consumer Confidence data for September remained unchanged at -14.9. In the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for September was weaker than expected at -8.7 (est. -1.0). In the UK Mortgage Approvals for August was in line with expectations at 64.7K, a decrease from 65.4K in July. Earlier this morning Japanese Industrial Production for August was weaker than expected at -1.2% (est. -0.9%). Final UK GDP QoQ was in line with expectations at 0.3% taking annualised GDP to 1.4% (est. 1.2%).In macro news today, there are several CPI prints to be released. Preliminary French and German CPI for September will be published. In France the annualised rate is expected to come in at 1.3% whilst in Germany it is expected to be 2.3%. Irish CPI for September will also be released with the August print coming in at 1.9%. US Consumer Confidence data for September will also be released, as well as the JOLTS Job Openings data and house price data from FHFA and Case Shiller. For central bank speakers today, starting with the ECB, Rehn, Cipollone, Nagel and Lagarde will speak. The Bank of England’s Mann, Lombardelli and Breeden will also speak. And for the Fed, speakers include Jefferson, Collins and Goolsbee
• Stocks: TotalEnergies: (Overweight. €62: 17% upside): Yesterday TotalEnergies presented its latest 2025 Strategy and Outlook. GSK: (Overweight. 1660p: 9% upside): Yesterday GSK confirmed that their CEO Emma Walmsley would be stepping down on 1st January 2026
• Debt: Bond markets rallied yesterday with yields falling 4 basis points as Spain core inflation fell, oil prices declined and as the US Govt shutdown looms.

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