• Market Round Up: Global equity markets traded mixed yesterday, having initially moved lower as crude oil surpassed $100/bl before US indices moved to positive after President Trump signalled on a CNBC call that the war was coming to an end. The S&P500 gained 0.8%, the Nasdaq rallied 1.4%, however the Eurostoxx600 slipped 0.6% AT&T fell 3.9% after the CFO confirmed that Q1 wireless revenue would be lower than the 2026 guidance. In Europe Deutsche Lufthansa was down 6.4% after the airline confirmed it would extend suspensions of Middle Eastern flights, coupled with rising oil prices.    Soft German Industrial Production data for January (-0.5% vs Est. 1.0%) did not help the Dax Index (-0.8%) whilst Factory Orders also missed the mark (-11.1% vs Est. -4.3%). Iran chose Mojtaba Khamenei (son of former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) as its new leader, in a move that signalled resistance to a potential de-escalation of the war and was strongly condemned by President Trump.   
• Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets have started on a positive note this morning, supported by a drop in oil prices after Trump’s comments. Japan is up 2.5%, Hong Kong up 2.0% and China is 1.2%. Technology (3.7%) and Industrial (3.0%) stocks are driving Japan higher this morning     Oracle will publish its 3Q26 financial results after the market closes today. Despite spiking 35.9% on September 10th last year, thanks to $455bn in order backlogs, the shares have slipped c.50% since then as market fears around the level of capex needed to build out datacentres intensifies.  It is another very quiet day on the macro side, with US Existing Home Sales (Est. 3.88m) for February being the highlight.
• Stocks in focus: Novo Nordisk (Neutral PT DKK266, 4% upside) – Hims & Hers deal part II. Shell (Overweight PT 3400p, 6.1% upside) – Jiffy Lube business sale.Grafton Group (Overweight PT £12.05 +35% Upside) - Acquisition of Cygnum Holdings.  
• Bonds: Stagflation fears gripped global bond markets yesterday as the US 10 year rose 3bps to 4.17% as traders increased bets of a US rate hike this year. In Europe, traders also see potential for a further rate hike this year. The German 10 year hit a one year high of 2.93% before pulling back to 2.86% Germany is issuing €5bn, 2.1%, 2028 bunds today whilst the US will issue $58bn worth of 3-year notes at a fixed coupon of 3.5% later this evening. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Simkus, Muller and Kocher.
• Commodities:  It was a volatile day across commodity markets yesterday. At one point crude oil hit $120/bl before falling back to $98.96, gaining 6.8% on the day. However, this morning crude is down 5.3% after Trump said he would waive oil related sanctions. Gold slipped 0.6% as demand for the US dollar pushed a move away from precious metals. Gold is up 0.7% this morning.

Opportunities this week:

• Last week was a busy week for PayPal with multiple announcements regarding its stablecoin (PYUSD), Venmo, and new strategic partnerships, which we believe continue to position PayPal to capture growth in the ever-evolving FinTech space, hence we reiterate our Overweight rating and a revised PT $97 from $96.   
• Following a multi-year period of de-rating and under-performance we are upgrading our rating on Diageo to Overweight and revising our price target from 2260p to 2370p, which provides c. 29% potential upside before the c.4% dividend yield. 
• After a period of share price weakness for Rio Tinto related to weaker iron ore prices, we are reiterating our Overweight rating with a PT of 5590p (c. 30% upside plus 7% dividend yield).