COP30 closed in Belém with no dramatic breakthroughs, but several clear signals for investors trying to understand where climate policy, and therefore climate-related financial risk, is heading next. The summit delivered progress in certain areas while exposing widening divides in global climate politics. For investors, the direction of travel is still toward transition, but the pace and shape will increasingly depend on each jurisdiction’s own decisions.

Fossil Fuel Phase Out: Strong Support, Weak Outcome

One of the most contentious themes of COP30 was fossil fuels. More than 80 countries, led by the EU and the UK, pushed for a roadmap to phase out coal, oil and gas, but the final agreement does not mention fossil fuels at all. It is a political compromise that keeps everyone in the room while avoiding language that major producers would not accept. Instead, Brazil announced it would take forward a voluntary fossil fuel transition roadmap outside the UN process. This means countries that want faster transition will now likely move through their own regional or cross-country alliances, not through UN climate negotiations.

Climate Adaptation Takes a Bigger Role

Adaptation efforts (i.e. helping countries cope with rising physical climate impacts) were more prominent than in previous COPs. The call to scale up adaptation finance reflects a simple reality: extreme weather events are accelerating, and resilience needs urgent investment. Munich Re, a global reinsurance company, estimated 250 billion dollars in global disaster losses in 2023, with about 95 billion dollars insured. This signals a worrying trend where the protection gap is widening, and a growing share of climate-related losses is falling directly on governments, businesses and households.

Therefore, adaptation and resilience are set to become a major investment theme. Water security, climate resilient agriculture, grid resilience, flood defence infrastructure and early warning technologies are all areas likely to see increased policy support and funding flows. Adaptation is moving from the edges of climate policy into the centre.

Forest and Nature: Momentum Without Binding Rules

Despite the Amazon setting, COP30 did not produce a binding commitment on halting deforestation. However, Brazil introduced the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a new forest finance vehicle which aims to scale about 6.6 billion dollars in early public commitments into up to 100 billion dollars via bond markets. This highlighted a growing recognition that protecting forests is not only an environmental issue but a financial one.

By directing more public and private capital towards reducing deforestation and strengthening nature-based resilience, these mechanisms aim to limit one of the major drivers of climate-related physical risk.

Gender Action Plan: Social Issues Move into Core Climate Policy

One of the quieter but important outcomes was the adoption of the Belém Gender Action Plan. It sets a new multi-year programme focusing on women’s leadership, gender equality and inclusive climate action across policy and finance.

This matters for sustainable investment because climate finance will now include stronger expectations around social inclusion. Funders, development banks and blended finance vehicles increasingly link climate programmes to gender outcomes. Over time, this will affect project screening, sovereign engagement and ESG reporting.

A Fragmented Landscape: Climate Action Is Becoming More Political and Local

Perhaps the clearest signal from COP30 is that climate action is no longer moving in one global direction at one global speed.

Although the United States was not present at COP30, a number of US governors attended, including California’s, representing the fourth largest economy in the world, only behind the United States, China and Germany. They reaffirmed their climate commitments and signalled continued alignment with net zero pathways.

This highlights a key trend: the direction of climate policy is becoming less coordinated globally and more driven by local conditions, so the path each country takes can differ widely. For investors, this makes geographic differentiation essential. Transition risk, i.e. the risks companies may face from the adjustment towards a lower carbon and more environmentally sustainable economy, will be jurisdiction specific, influenced by local politics, regulation and domestic policy momentum.

Adaptation and nature-related investments will grow, with new blended finance vehicles and incentives, while social and gender metrics will become more relevant in climate finance frameworks.

COP30 did not deliver a landmark global deal. But it clarified the world investors now face: one where climate action is advancing but unevenly, shaped by politics, regional alliances and local implementation.

Written By Carolina Angarita-Cala, Head of Sustainability