Overview

Budget 2026 will be released on Tuesday, October 7, 2025. Ahead of it, we take a look at what it may contain and the key things for investors to look out for.

Three themes are likely to stand out: investment in housing, taxation of investments, and pension reform, particularly the introduction of auto enrolment.

The overall framework for Budget 2026 points to a package of approximately €9.4bn, split between €7.9bn in public spending and €1.5bn in tax cuts. The allocation of the package will send important signals on the priorities of Government and will have implications across several sectors.

Housing

Housing is expected to be a central focus as it’s seen to be the key issue facing the country right now, with around €2bn earmarked for capital expenditure. The government is likely to reaffirm its commitment to extend both the Help to Buy and First Home schemes through to 2030, supported by the government’s recently updated National Development Plan. The Croí Cónaithe (Cities) scheme, which currently carries a budget of €450m through to 2026, could be extended following review by the Housing Agency. Industry groups have also called for a temporary reduction to the 13.5% VAT rate on new homes and apartments for first time buyers. Given that VAT adds on average €54,832 to the cost of a three-bed home, any reduction would meaningfully lower costs and should provide a tailwind for affordability. This focus on affordability dovetails with ongoing reviews of the Residential Zoned Land Tax, the possible extension of the Stamp Duty Residential Rebate, and discussions around expanding Rent Pressure Zones nationwide.

There are several Irish listed companies, which could benefit from these measures in our view. Homebuilders such as Cairn Homes, would clearly benefit any extension or enhancement of government housing supports (80% of its starter homes are available to at prices below state-supported pricing caps), along with any reduction in VAT rates. Irish Residential Properties REIT (IRES) may also benefit from a VAT reduction, as it would likely increase the number of quality homes available for purchase and therefore the number of homes it could offer for rent.

Taxation of Investments

Taxation is another area of focus. Debate is likely to centre on the Deemed Disposal Rule, which taxes unrealised gains in Irish funds every eight years, and on any potential alignment of the 41% Exit Tax with the 33% Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rate. There are also broader calls to reduce CGT itself, which at 33% is among the highest in Europe and well above the EU average of about 20%. Any reduction would likely encourage greater market activity, although balancing this with a lower Exit Tax rate would be complex.

Alongside this, the government’s approach to the recently launched EU’s Savings and Investment Union (SIU) will also be in focus. The SIU seeks to channel low-yielding bank deposits into more productive investments. An Irish initiative to create a tax-advantaged account, similar to the UK’s Individual Savings Accounts, could provide households with more attractive investment options and help to mobilise part of the €156bn currently held in low-yielding deposit accounts.

Pensions in Focus

Pensions will also feature prominently, with January 2026 marking the introduction of the auto enrolment scheme, My Future Fund. Employees aged 23 to 60, earning more than €20,000 annually and not already in a payroll-deducted scheme, will automatically join this scheme. Contributions will begin at 1.5% of gross earnings, matched by employers and supplemented by a 0.5% state top-up. Rates will rise every three years, reaching 14% in the tenth year. Opt-outs will be permitted only in specific windows, such as between months six and eight of enrolment or after a change in contribution rates during the first decade.

At present, only one in three private sector workers has a pension beyond the state system. With an ageing population and the risk of retirement poverty growing, this scheme is designed to close the gap, align Ireland with OECD standards and help build long-term savings capacity.

Conclusion

Budget 2026 may be constrained in scale, particularly given that only €1.5bn is available for tax cuts, but it is likely to shape key areas of economic and financial policy going forward. Housing initiatives are expected to support supply and affordability, tax reforms enhance the domestic retail investing landscape, and auto enrolment will mark the most significant pension reform in decades.

As always, seeking professional advice before making financial decisions is important. A diversified approach remains the most effective way to manage risk and build wealth over time. At Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland we offer a broad range of diversified and discretionary investment options and encourage clients to contact us for further details.

Written By Aaron Dempsey, Equity Research Analyst & Aaron Cunnigham, Wealth Consultant, Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland.