The week that was

Global equity markets moved lower last week as investors booked profits on AI related names and economic data sent mixed signals. The S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly return since early October at -2.0% as strong earnings from AI bellwether Nvidia were not enough to offset concerns around sector monetisation and valuation levels.

Furthermore, while US job creation for September was better than expected, a continuation of downward revisions to prior months’ data and a step up in the unemployment rate served to unnerve investors. European equities fell 2.2% with the auto segment the biggest laggard following a profit warning from parts supplier Valeo.

Global bond markets moved marginally lower on the week, with Italian bonds outperforming as Italy won its first credit rating upgrade from Moody’s in more than 23 years. Global commodities sold off with oil prices down over 3% on rising US drilling activity and the return of the majors to Libya, which could result in supply increases over time.

Summary economic releases

The week ahead

Asian equities moved higher this morning following on from strength in the US on Friday, as Fed member John Williams noted that a December rate cut was still on the table, with markets now pricing up to a 70% probability of this. Markets did trend lower in Tokyo however as Sanae Takaichi’s government reaffirmed its commitment to deploy missiles near a Taiwanese military base, which has served to escalate tensions with China.

With earnings season having largely drawn to a close and it being a holiday shortened week in the US due to Thanksgiving, the UK Budget will likely be a key focal point for markets in the week ahead. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to unveil over £30 billion in fiscal tightening measures in order to put the UK on a sustainable fiscal footing and regain market trust following a larger than expected expansion in government debt. If successful, gilt yields are likely to move lower and some of the weakness seen in sterling year to date could unwind.

There will be a small number of notable company releases this week including Analog Devices, Dell, Molten Ventures and in particular Irish Continental Group, where the market will be expecting continued operational strength and looking for clarity around the full reopening of Holyhead Port. Markets will also cast an eye to whether a deal can be struck to end the war in Ukraine ahead of US President Trump’s Thursday deadline. Black Friday holiday spending will also garner attention as investors look to ascertain the strength of the US consumer.

Macro developments

Macro developments will also be in focus in the week ahead, starting with today’s German IFO, which is likely to indicate that economic expectations strengthened to their highest level since February 2022, thereby boding well for GDP growth in the final quarter of the year.

Tuesday should bring confirmation that a rush to take advantage of EV tax credits saw auto spend drive an expansion in US retail sales for September. Tuesday should also confirm that US Consumer Confidence weakened modestly this month, which could have negative implications for this week’s Thanksgiving holiday spending. Given the sparseness of reliable macro data in recent months, the FOMC may rely more heavily on its Beige Book, which is released on

Wednesday and should highlight weakness in employment across a number of Fed districts. Durable Goods Orders, also on Wednesday, will likely indicate that capex intentions among US corporates are moving sideways. On Thursday, ECB minutes should indicate that policymakers remain relatively hawkish, however, with disinflationary forces likely evident across most of the currency bloc on Friday and wage pressures also receding, easing could move back onto the agenda in 2026.

Key Market-Moving Events This Week

• Macro: German IFO, ECB minutes, US Consumer Confidence
• Corporate updates: Dell, Molten Ventures, Analog Devices and Irish Continental Group
• Political developments: UK Budget, Negotiations on attempts to end the war in Ukraine

This is an extract from the Weekly Markets Report by Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland. For more detail on individual securities, or to discuss how we can support your investment needs, please get in touch.

Written by John Mullane, CIO, Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland