The Week That Was

Global equities moved modestly higher last week, supported by softer inflation data and resilient corporate earnings. The S&P 500 gained 0.29%, reaching a fresh record high during the week as easing price pressures supported sentiment, although Applied Materials fell 5.1% as weaker margin guidance overshadowed the earnings beat. European equities were more subdued, declining 0.27% as renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent up 5.4% and weighed on sentiment. The key macro developments came from the US, where softer inflation and retail sales data reduced expectations for Fed tightening. However, longer-dated yields remained elevated as Yen weakness raised concerns around further intervention and potential selling pressure on US Treasuries, contributing to a 0.30% decline in Global Bonds in Euro terms.

Summary Economic Releases

The Week Ahead

Asian markets moved largely higher this morning on the back of a continued rally in the tech sector. Japanese Q2 GDP came in well below expectations at 1.1%, however it is not expected to derail the prospective rate hike by the BOJ in September. The Yen held steady at Y159, well below the Y164 level that triggered US intervention earlier in the month. Covert gulf exports kept downward pressure on Brent, which is trading lower at $88.3 a barrel this morning, however a US ‘economic isolation’ plan to be unveiled this week could prompt fresh price volatility.

From an economic perspective, the FOMC Minutes will be the key focus this week, with investors looking for further insight into the debate following its decision to leave rates unchanged in July despite three hawkish dissents. Recent data showing softer inflation and cooling activity supports our view that Fed tightening is unlikely this year. Nonetheless, longer-dated yields will likely remain elevated, as long as there is a real perceived need for intervention in the Yen by the US Treasury and the monetary impact of changes Chair Warsh intends to make at the Fed remain unclear. In Europe, the German ZEW Survey is expected to show sentiment improving in August to its highest since Q1. Elsewhere, activity indicators are likely to remain mixed, pointing to continued subdued growth dynamics, Eurozone industrial activity is expected to slow on weakness in services whilst consumer confidence is also expected to soften.

From a corporate perspective, earnings season is entering its final stages, but several key releases remain, particularly within the US consumer sector, which should provide further evidence on whether spending can remain resilient in the quarters ahead against the backdrop of elevated inflation and a cooling labour market. For Home Depot, attention will focus on home improvement demand amid higher interest rates, while Walmart is expected to offer a broader read on consumer spending trends, the impact of tariffs on pricing and its quarterly outlook. With JD Sports, the market will be looking for evidence and discretionary spending is holding and its earnings decline is bottoming. Overall, we remain constructive on risk assets (means we are about 1% overweight but equity positioning would be cautious), but with global equities near record highs, this week’s data will need to reinforce the case for the Fed remaining on hold, while retailer earnings will need to demonstrate that softer activity reflects a gradual moderation in consumption rather than a more meaningful deterioration in demand.

Opportunities this week:
• Aviva (Overweight PT 776p c. 7% upside) – H1 2026 results review
• Flutter Entertainment (Overweight PT$147 45% upside) – Read-across from peer results announcements
• IRES REIT (Overweight PT €1.39, +25.2% Upside) – Recap on strong HY26 results.

Written by John Mullane, CIO, Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland

This is an extract from the Weekly Markets Report by Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland. For more detail on individual securities, or to discuss how we can support your investment needs, please get in touch.