Daily Note Archives

Macro: Equity markets ended lower yesterday with the S&P500 (-0.25%) and Nasdaq (-0.30%). Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell index (-0.06%). In the US, three of the eleven sectors were in positive territory and 35% of stocks ended higher. For the S&P, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary were the best performers, while Energy and Real Estate were weakest. Micron Technology was up (+4.1%) as it raised its sales and earnings outlook on improved prices. Intel also rose (3.5%) yesterday, as their CEO was summoned to the White House. In Europe, five of the eleven sectors were in positive territory with 36% of stocks finishing higher. Communication Services and Financials were best, while Consumer Discretionary and Materials were the worst. In economic news out of Europe, UK Unemployment rate for June was in line at 4.7%. Later today in Europe, the German ZEW Survey will be released, while in the US, NFIB Small Business Optimism will be released and all eyes will be on July’s Core inflation to gauge the path of future interest rate moves. From the central bankers, the Fed’s Barkin and Schmid will be speaking.

Stocks: Yesterday we were joined by the CEO of IRES, Eddie Byrne and CFO Brian Fagan to discuss last week’s H1 results, and a number of macro and legislative initiatives set to be introduced by the Irish government. When discussing the proposed new rent cap regulations, the company recognised that the Government had to walk a political tightrope. The cap is still based on the lower of 2% or CPI, and will extend from the existing Rent Pressure Zones (RPZ) to a nationwide footprint, new builds will be subject to inflation-only cap. These new regulations, from the rent cap to looser design and environmental standards could each reduce the average valuation yield by 10-20bps, and potentially drive yields towards 4%, which support the asset valuation.When touching on the 19% reversion, it’s worth understanding that the average rent of an IRES tenant is €1,823, up 1.5% from H1 24 but considerably lower than the market average of c.€2,169. Management pointed out that if IRES matched the market average, it would reflect a 23% increase in income and greatly support the net rental income margin.On the asset disposal program, IRES have set a target of disposing of 315 units over a 3–5-year period. They target disposals of units where they are not the Overhead Management Company (OMC). So far, a total of 57 units has been disposed of achieving a sales premium in excess of book value by 25% When discussing the wider Irish property market, since the announcement of the changes in rent reg’s back in June, if the government follow through on these changes, it makes Ireland a more appealing market for foreign capital flow again. This can provide good Joint Venture (JV) opportunities for IRES.So from a valuation perspective we maintain an OVERWEIGHT on the stock with a target price of €1.26, in line with its NAV and offering a 24% upside from yesterday’s close.

Debt: Core bond yields in the US remained unchanged following the absence of economic data yesterday and ahead of the key US inflation report today.