Daily Note Archives

Market Round Up: Following a social media post from President Trump that the US and Iran were talking, and that the US would suspend strikes against power and energy infrastructure for five days, the market bounced at the open by 2% before closing up 1.15% for the S&P500. The Nasdaq gained 1.38%. Europe started weak but popped +4% on Trump’s post, ending the day 0.61% higher. US data on Construction Spending was weaker than expected at -0.3% for January but was likely weather impacted. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was very weak versus consensus at -0.11 in January, compared to expectation of +0.16, and +0.20 previously. Meanwhile, the first signs that the Iranian conflict was impacting on European consumers was seen in the March Consumer Confidence Index which was -16.3, versus -12.3 previously. The US aftermarket was relatively quiet after a tumultuous day. Smurfit Westrock posted a 6.9% rise during normal trading hours on easing energy costs after recent weakness.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Asian markets are broadly positive this morning, with Tokyo up 2.1%, China +1.3% and Hong Kong up 2.5%. Other than looking at the latest news from Iran and Washington, today the market will get a raft of Purchasing Managers Indices covering Manufacturing and Services from the US, UK, Japan, France and Germany. Generally, a weaker set of numbers is expected. This morning Kingfisher (B&Q and Screwfix) reported in line results for FY2025, and guided to 6.25% growth in adjusted profit before tax, which is what the market was expecting, but is a solid read across for Grafton Group

Stocks in focus: Flutter (Overweight PT $250 c. 130% upside) – Senate bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets.

Bonds: There was huge volatility in bond markets yesterday as yields rose to new highs in the morning, before an afternoon fade after Trump’s announcement. Overall, the day ended with yields down 4bps in both the US and Germany. In private credit markets, Apollo became the next major player to cap withdrawals from one of its funds. There are auctions in longer dated bonds from Netherlands (2056s), UK (2035s) and Germany (2031s) today. Finally, given the implied expectations for nearly three rate rises in 2026 from the ECB, speakers Kocher, Sleijpen, Cipollone, and Lane will be worth a close listen to today.

Commodities: This morning energy markets are up again with Brent crude up 2.8%, WTI up 3.7%, and European gas prices are up 1.2%. This follows a -4.3% move for European gas, and -11% for Brent crude yesterday. There are fears that despite Trump’s deescalation talk, other Gulf states may become more actively involved in the conflict. Gold is little changed this morning.