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  • Equity Markets: Equity markets had a soft day yesterday with the S&P500 down -0.35% and the Nasdaq -0.14%, as investors were wary ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Europe was also off slightly at -0.07%.  In the US, only one sector was in positive territory and only 31.2% of stocks ended higher. IT and Industrials were best. Communication Services and Materials were weakest. Investors continue to react negatively to Netflix’s (-3.4%) bid for Warner Bros Discovery (+4.4%). Whilst Semis was a bright spot with Nvidia up +1.7% and Micron up +4.1%, leading the SOX Semiconductor Index up 1.1%. In Europe, five of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with Industrials and Financials best, whilst Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary were weakest. Semi manufacturing company ASM International rose 6.9% as a large international investment bank added it to its Top Pick list.
  • Macro: In Europe, German industrial production rose significantly more than expected in October +0.8% YoY, versus the -0.4% expected and the -1.4% previous reading. For the EU the Sentix Investor Confidence index for December, improved slightly to -6.2 from -7.4. This morning, we had the BRC Sale Like for Like data from the UK for November at +1.2% YoY, below the 2.5% estimate, Ireland’s Construction PMI for November declined to 46.7% from 48.1% and from Germany, its Trade Balance data for October was €16.9bn above €15.7bn est and €15.3bn previously as a result of weaker imports rather than strong exports. In the US, the NY Fed’s 1-Yr Inflation Expectation level remains above the 2% target at 3.2%.Economic releases today from the US are the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Nov), and more importantly the JOLTS Job Openings (Oct est. 7115K).
  • Stocks: TotalEnergies: (Overweight PT €65.0,+15% Upside): Switching to dual listing in New York as well as consolidation in the North Sea Oil and Gas sector. L’Oreal (Overweight, PT €415, +13.5% Upside): Recent acquisition of a further 10% in Galderma Group AG.
  • Debt: Bond yields headed higher from the get-go yesterday as a combination of higher JGB yields, hawkish Schnabel comments and stronger German Industrial Production data weighed on prices.