Daily Note Archives

Market Round Up: Global equity markets pulled back from all-time highs yesterday as investors took profits and remained cautious around peace talks between the US and Iran. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq slid 0.3%, whilst the Euro Stoxx 600 declined 0.8%. European energy stocks (+2.3%) gained ground, with Shell (+2.5%), TotalEnergies (+1.9%) and BP (+2.8%) all moving higher due to the Middle East conflict. Brown-Forman, owner of the iconic Jack Daniel’s whisky brand, stated that it would prefer a sale of the business to Pernod Ricard, as opposed to American rival Sazerac Co. If a deal were struck with Pernod Ricard, it could take the combined market cap to c.€30bn, bringing it close to the size of Diageo (£34bn market cap). Meanwhile, pharma giant Eli Lilly agreed to buy Kelonia Therapeutics, the cutting-edge blood cancer biotech firm, in a deal valued at c.$7bn. The acquisition further strengthens Lilly’s position in the cancer market, following the group’s 2019 acquisition of Loxo Oncology for $8bn. Apple CEO Tim Cook is set to step away from the role at the end of August and will be succeeded by John Ternus, head of the company’s hardware division. US Vice President JD Vance flew back to Pakistan yesterday to begin a second round of peace talks with Iran; however, it has been mooted that Iranian officials are not keen to re-engage while the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains intact.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian equities are moving in a positive direction this morning, led by communication and technology names. Japan is up 0.1%, Hong Kong is up 0.4% and China is up 0.2%. On the macro side, the German ZEW survey will be updated for April, with the Current Situation index projected at -70.5. We have also just had the release of UK jobless claims for March, which came in at 26.8k. On the earnings side, in the US we have releases from General Electric (1Q26), United Airlines (1Q26) and UnitedHealth Group (1Q26). In Europe, ASM International (1Q26, after market) and Associated British Foods (1H26) are the main names in focus today.

Stocks in focus: Neutral, PT 6910p 6.6% downside) – Q1 Production update and PT change.

Bonds: The US Treasury yield curve was relatively stable yesterday despite geopolitical uncertainties. The 1-year yield rose 9bps to 3.64%, while the 10-year yield was little changed at 4.24%. The German 10-year rose 2bps to 2.98%, while the UK 10-year increased by 7bps to 4.83%. On the auction side, Germany will sell €6bn of 2.5% 2028 bonds, while the US will issue $70bn worth of 6-week bills. The Fed’s blackout period is currently in force, but updates are due from the ECB’s Nagel, Guindos and Kocher. Kevin Warsh will also begin his confirmation hearing before Congress today.

Commodities: Crude oil moved higher yesterday, gaining 6.9% to $89.61 per barrel as instability in the Middle East increased, with a ceasefire extension looking unlikely. This morning, oil is down 2.0%. Gold moved 0.2% lower yesterday to $4,820 and is down a further 0.7% this morning.