Daily Note Archives

Market Round Up: Global equity markets had a volatile day yesterday, moving from losses to gains as investors reacted to mixed news coming from the Middle East. The S&P500 and Nasdaq gained 0.1%, whilst European stocks fell 1.0%.Last night the US and Iran agreed a 2-week ceasefire on the condition that the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened. The deal was reached with help from Pakistani officials with Trump confirming the US would help in ensuring safe passage through the Strait. On the macro side, US Durable Goods Orders for February came in at -1.4%, slightly weaker then estimates (-1.2%). Eurozone Final PMIs for March slightly beat estimates (50.7 vs Est.50.5), with France outperforming (48.8 vs Est. 48.3) and Germany in line at 51.9. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is seeking to acquire Universal Music Group (UMG), the world’s largest music company for $65bn, in a stock/cash deal split €56bn in shares (at c.€30.40 per share) and €9.4bn in cash. Ackman is looking to merge Dutch headquartered UMG with several record labels in the US. UMG shares jumped 11.4% over the day

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities- In Asia, markets have popped this morning on the news of the ceasefire. Japan is up 3.3%, Hong Kong is up 3.0% and China is 3.1% higher. The news is having a strongly positive impact on European and US equity index futures, with Eurostoxx futures up 5.3% and the S&P500 up 2.6%. The market will keenly anticipate the publishment of the March FOMC Minutes. Additionally, we will have the release of MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended April 3rd. Already this morning we got updated German Factory Orders for February, which came in weaker than expected (0.9% vs Est.3.0%) and later we will have the release of Construction PMI in the UK for March (Est. 43.7). On our company coverage side today, we have the release of Shell’s Q1 ‘26 Sales and Revenue report, whilst FedEx Freight will also host and investor day. Delta Airlines will post their Q1 ‘26 results before the US market opens, which may offer a readthrough to Ryanair in relation to fuel prices.

Stocks in focus: Shell (Neutral PT £36 1% upside) – Q1 2026 sales and production update, PT and rating change

Bonds: The US Treasury yield curve steepened yesterday as the market reacted to moving oil prices. Long end yields rose c.4bps with the 30-year yield moving cheaper. The 3-year note auction showed strong demand, offering support to the front end of the curve. Both the German and UK 10-year yields rose 8bps to 3.07% and 4.91% respectively. From an auction perspective Germany will issue €5bn 2.9% 2036 bonds whilst the EU is selling €4.5bn worth of short-dated bills. In the US the Treasury is looking to issue $39bn worth of 10-year notes. The Federal Reserve’s Daly will be the main central bank speaker today.

Commodities: Despite crude oil prices rising 0.5% yesterday, after last night’s ceasefire announcement, oil is now down 15.2% to $95.81 p/b this morning whilst European natural gas prices opened 20% lower. Gold gained 1.2% yesterday and is up a further 2.6% this morning to $4,830. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 1.8% this morning.