Daily Note Archives

Market Round Up: Global equity markets traded lower yesterday as a spike in oil prices and a rise in Treasury Yields indicated growing concerns around the Middle East conflict. The S&P500 declined 0.6%, the Nasdaq fell 0.3% whilst the EuroStoxx600 dropped 1.3%. Despite solid Broadcom (+4.8%) earnings, the wider US semiconductor index fell 1.2% after the Trump administration confirmed plans to require permits for the sale of chips, in particular Nvidia chips to China. European industrials fell 2.8% due to concerns around oil prices. Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ended 28th February came in slightly better than expected at 213k (Est. 215k). French Industrial Production for January was stronger than expected at 0.5% (Est. 0.4%). UK construction PMI for January was 44.5 (Est. 47.0). Final Q4 GDP in Ireland came in at -3.8% QoQ

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets have started on a positive note this morning with Japan up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.7% and China up 0.2%. The gains have been primarily driven by tech stocks.

Whilst developments on the war in the Middle East will likely be the key driver of markets today, there are still a number of important macro prints to look out for. In the US we will have February Nonfarm Payroll data (Est. 55k) and an updated unemployment rate (Est. 4.3%). January Retail Sales (Est. -0.3%) will also be updated. In Europe Q4 GDP (Est. 0.3%) will be updated. On the earnings side from our coverage list we have FY25 results from FBD. Deutsche Lufthansa will also release their FY25 results this morning. There are no major earnings results from the US today.

Stocks in focus: FBD Holdings (Overweight PT €17.50 6.4% upside) – FY results and PT upgrade. Kingspan (Overweight PT €94.60 +20% Upside) – Meeting with IR team post FY25 results and PT upgrade.

Bonds: In bond markets the US 10-year yield hit a 3-week high of 4.13% as investors price in the inflationary impact from a spike in energy prices. The German 10-year Bund rose 3bps to 2.78% whilst the 2-year jumped 9bps to 2.22%, in line for its biggest weekly jump since April 2023. There are no major bond auctions today. We have a considerable number of central bank speakers today. From the ECB, Cipollone and Schnabel and from the Fed, Goolsbee, Waller, Daly, Schmidt, Miran, Hammack and Collins.

Commodities: Crude oil prices are 0.4% lower this morning ($80.73) after spiking 8.5% yesterday as the Middle East war continues to strain supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold is up 0.8% this morning having declined 1.1% yesterday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.3% as solid jobs data and demand for safe haven assets spurred USD higher.