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  • Market Round Up:   Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil higher and mounting stress in credit markets weighed on risk assets. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.8%, and the Euro Stoxx 600 declined 0.6%. Banks came under pressure as redemption strains in private-credit funds forced Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater to cap withdrawals, while Deutsche Bank also drew attention after flagging about $30billion of exposure to the sector. HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, slid 6.1% on the day. After the close in the US. Adobe disappointed the market with a softer outlook and announced that its CEO will step down.  On the macro front, UK industrial production came in weaker than expected this morning at -0.1%, versus the forecast of +0.3%. 
  • Day Ahead and Market Drivers:
  • Asian markets are following the global tone overnight with Japan down 0.6%, Hong Kong 1% lower, and China also down 1%.
  • Looking ahead in the US, we get personal income and spending data today,including the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge that will provide a key read on the direction of underlying price pressures. We also have the University of Michigan Sentiment Index that is expected to show a modest decline in consumer sentiment.  Glenveagh Properties PLC reports its FY 2025 Earnings. 
  • Stocks in focus: Grafton Group (Overweight PT £12.05 +33% Upside) – Summary of meeting with CFO David Arnold Cairn Homes (Overweight, PT €2.67, 14% upside) – IR meeting summary,Glenveagh Properties (Not Covered) – Full years earning statement review.
  • Bonds: Short-dated Treasuries weakened as traders stopped fully pricing a Fed rate cut in 2026. Global bonds erased their year-to-date gains.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3bps to 4.26%, while Germany’s 10-year yield gained 2bps to 2.96% and the UK 10-year yield climbed 9bps to 4.77%. The US 2-year Treasury yield increased 9bps to 3.74%  Here in Ireland, the NTMA saw strong demand for its 2036 bond. They received €2.386 billion in bids for a €1.25 billion allocation, a bid-to-cover of 1.91, slightly above the recent auction average. The new 3.1% bond yields 3.207% and will settle on the 16th of March. Central bank speakers the ECB’s Wunsch will be speaking in Brussels.
  • Commodities:  Brent crude closed above $100 for the first time since 2022. Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could surpass their 2008 peak if reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz persist into March. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.5% to a near two-month high, while the euro slipped 0.5%. Gold is trading down 0.9% to $5,080.