Daily Note Archives

Market Round Up: Stocks and bonds advanced yesterday while oil prices moved lower, as traders assessed the prospects for potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq rose 0.8%, and the EuroStoxx 600 climbed 1.4%. In corporate news, Meta Platforms (+0.3%) is cutting several hundred roles as part of a broader restructuring spanning sales, recruiting, and Reality Labs. The reductions affect both U.S. and international operations, with some impacted staff offered relocation or alternative internal opportunities. SK Hynix announced plans to purchase roughly $8 billion in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) equipment from ASML, accelerating its advanced-chip production capacity amid surging AI-related semiconductor demand. On the macro front, the MBA mortgage-applications index fell 10.5% in the week ending March 20, following a 10.9% decline the previous week. U.S. mortgage rates rose for the third consecutive week, reaching their highest levels since October and further weakening both home purchase and refinancing activity.In Europe, Germany’s business outlook deteriorated as elevated energy costs linked to the conflict in Iran weighed on sentiment, jeopardizing the country’s already fragile recovery. The IFO expectations index slipped to 86, its lowest reading in more than a year, reflecting rising uncertainty and growing downside risks. Economists still anticipate moderate growth but highlight that sustained energy-price pressures could undermine the outlook. In the UK, February inflation remained 1 percentage point above the Bank of England’s target. Headline CPI held at 3%, unchanged from January. Services inflation eased marginally to 4.3% from 4.4%, while core CPI ticked up to 3.2% from 3.1%. With inflation still sticky, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold, though the possibility of a pre-emptive hike remains if policymakers judge that inflation expectations require reinforcement

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian equities are under pressure this morning, with Hong Kong down 2.0%, China lower by 1.5%, and Japan falling 0.2%, as renewed Middle East tensions weigh on regional sentiment.On the U.S. macro calendar, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise modestly to 210k from 205k, reflecting a gradual softening in labour market momentum.On the earnings front, today’s focus will be on Next PLC (FY 2026 results).

Bonds: Bond yields declined yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions, lower oil prices, and softer inflation expectations boosted demand for safe-haven government debt. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.33%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield dropped 7 bps to 2.96%. UK 10-year gilt yields declined 12 bps to 4.84%, tracking the broader global move. This morning, bond yields are partially reversing the prior session’s decline, with volatile Middle East headlines adding renewed upward pressure across the curve as investors reassess inflation implications and geopolitical risk premia.

Commodities: Oil prices rebounded this morning amid significant supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent up 2.5% at $99.70 as geopolitical risks re-intensify. Gold is trading lower, down 2.4% to $4,442, as rising U.S. yields, a stronger dollar, and liquidity driven selling continue to outweigh safe-haven demand.