Daily Note Archives

Market Round Up: Global equity markets continued to move higher yesterday despite weakness from quarterly banking results. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq rose 2.0%, whilst the Euro Stoxx 600 increased by 1.0%. JP Morgan reported mixed Q1 results, with the stock down 0.8% on the day. Despite excellent performance across its trading desk (+21% YoY) and a strong rebound in investment banking revenue (+38% YoY), management revised FY26 net interest income guidance lower to $103bn, from $104.5bn (est. $104.15bn). Wells Fargo saw its shares fall 5.7% after the bank missed its lending targets.Despite a stalemate in negotiations over the weekend, the US and Iran are expected to engage in a second round of peace talks, despite the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Both Geneva and Pakistan have been suggested as locations to hold bilateral talks before the ceasefire ends. US PPI Final Demand for March was weaker MoM than estimates (1.1%), coming in at 0.5%. The AIB Construction PMI for March expanded to 53.2 from 52.1 in February.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets have started on a positive note this morning as sentiment around a peace deal between the US and Iran remains positive. Japan is up 0.3%, Hong Kong is up 0.4%, whilst China is down 0.1%.On the macro side, US MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended 10 April will be released. Empire Manufacturing data for April (est. 0.0) will also be updated. March final French CPI will be released this morning and is expected to be 1.7% YoY. On the earnings side, financial services will continue to lead the way. Morgan Stanley (1Q26) and Bank of America (1Q26) are the two big US names, whilst in Europe, the region’s largest company, ASML, released a solid set of Q1 results (net income up 17% YoY) and raised FY26 revenue guidance to between €36bn and €40bn, with gross margins of 51%–53%

Stocks in focus: CRH – (Overweight PT $142 c. 21% upside) – Delisting from LSE reminder. PTSB – (Neutral PT €2.97 3% Upside) – Recommended offer by BAWAG and PT and rating change.

Bonds: There were noticeable movements across bond markets yesterday. The UK raised a record £15bn from 2036 gilts, drawing £148bn in investor orders and marking the highest yield paid on a 10-year issuance since 2008. The German 10-year yield fell 7bps to 3.02%, whilst the US 10-year dropped 5bps to 4.25% as confidence around a Middle East deal grows.On the auction side, Germany will sell €3bn of long-dated bonds today. A raft of central bank speakers is scheduled today. From the ECB, we will hear from Lagarde, Schnabel, Villeroy, Cipollone and Escriva. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in Washington, whilst from the Fed we will hear from Barr, Hammack and Bowman. Kevin Warsh will also have his Fed nomination hearing next week.

Commodities: Crude oil prices dropped 7.9% yesterday to $91.28 p/b and are relatively unchanged this morning, down slightly to $90.59. Despite a risk-on tone yesterday, gold climbed 2.1% to $4,841 but is down 0.4% this morning.