Daily Note Archives

Equity Markets: Equity markets had a moderately positive day yesterday with the S&P500 +0.11% and the Nasdaq +0.22%, as traders took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. Europe was slightly better, closing a subdued +0.45%. In the US, it was a balanced day; five sectors were in positive territory and 50% of stocks ended higher. Industrials and IT were best, whilst Healthcare and Consumer Staples were weakest. Big Tech was a mixed bag with Nvidia (+2.1%), Meta (+3.4%) and Oracle (+3.2%) up, whilst Apple (-1.2%), Amazon (-1.4%) and Alphabet (-0.63%) were weak. Dollar General rose 14% on its raised guidance as consumers seek better value. In Europe, eight of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with Industrials and Consumer Discretionary best, whilst Healthcare and Utilities were worst. Ocado bounced 6.9% as it announced a $350m compensation payment from Kroger and a target to be cash flow positive for FY26. European automakers rose 3.1% as a group on a broker sector upgrade.

Macro: In macro news yesterday, in Europe, Germany’s Construction PMI rose in November nicely to 45.2 from 42.8. In signs of further UK economic weakness in November, New Car Registrations declined 1.6% YoY and the UK’s Construction PMI fell to 39.4 from 44.1 previously, well below estimates of 44.6. EU retail sales in October rose 1.5% YoY, above the +1.3% est. and +1.2% previous result. Irish GDP was -0.3% QoQ for Q3, but 10.8% YoY, whilst the more meaningful Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) statistic rose +2.3% QoQ or 5.1% YoY. In the US, the Challenger Job Cuts rose 23.5% YoY to 71.3K, which was below the +48.0% est. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 191K, below 220K est. and lower than 218K previously. Factory and Durable Goods ex Transportation Orders remained subdued at +0.2% and +0.6% QoQ. Economic releases today include Eurozone GDP (3Q T) and Employment (3Q F). From France we get Trade Balance (Oct), Current Account Balance (Oct), Industrial Production (Oct), and Manufacturing Production MoM (Oct). From Germany we have Factory Orders (Oct). From Ireland the Live Register Level (Nov). And then from the US, we get Personal Income and Spending (Sep 0.3% est for both), the well-watched Core PCE Price Index (Sep 2.8% est.), University of Michigan Sentiment Survey (Dec P. 52 est.) and lastly Consumer Credit (Oct)

Debt: Bond yields (ex UK) moved higher yesterday afternoon following a much larger than expected fall in the US jobless claims numbers that sent 10-year Treasury yields higher.