Research Archive

Market Round Up: Yesterday, equity markets were subdued again with the S&P -0.19%, the Nasdaq -0.10% and the Eurostoxx 600 -0.08%. US Tech had a mixed day with Software names weak (e.g. Salesforce -7.1%, Adobe -5.4%) and Tech Hardware positive (e.g. Intel +7.5%, AMD +6.4% and Arista +5.3%). December US CPI was slightly lower than expected at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY for the core index. Food and Services price level increases were offset by lower energy price contribution. JP Morgan reported solid results from most divisions other than its Investment Banking arm, with CEO Dimon indicating businesses generally remain healthy, consumers continue to spend with a stable though softened labour market but are cautious regarding geopolitics. BNY Mellon results were solid across the board. Asian markets this morning are mixed again with Tokyo having another good day +1.3% whilst China is down -0.4%. Hong Kong is up 0.3%. Tokyo continues to run on potential for a snap election to strengthen the hand of pro-stimulus PM Takaichi.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Yesterday’s data out of the US was generally supportive of markets with the NFIB Small Business Optimism index at 99.5 vs 99.2 expected, ADP Weekly Employment Change was steady at 11,750 and Real Average Hourly Earnings for December increase by 1.1% YoY from 0.9% previously.The Supreme Court has scheduled a second “decision day” of the year for today, when it may rule on the legality of Trump’s reliance on the International Economic Emergency Power Act for tariffs. Results season continues today with Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup issuing Q4 results around midday

Stocks in focus: Visa (Overweight PT $387, 18% upside): Thoughts on Trump’s support for the Credit Card Competition Act.

Bonds: Core bond yields ended yesterday little changed despite CPI data being lower than expected. Inflation in the US is still above target levels but moving in the right direction for the Fed to move lower next year, if not in January, as option prices continue to price in two rate cuts in 2026. The key focus in the day ahead will be on US data with PPI (0.2% MoM est.), Existing Home Sales (+2.2% MoM) est.) and Retail Sales (+0.5% est.). From the Fed there is a mixture of views likely, with Miran (Dove), Kashkari (Dove), Bostic (Hawk), Paulson (Hawk) and Williams (neutral) all speaking. Following yesterday’s heavy slate of bond auctions, which were generally well covered, today sees another set of long bonds from Ireland, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, Canada and Sweden.

Commodities: Oil is down -0.75% this morning, following a strong bounce yesterday (+2.8%). Precious metals continue to benefit from uncertainty around the Fed’s continued independence due to the Trump administration’s actions against it. Gold this morning is +1.0% after a weaker day (-0.24%) yesterday. Silver continues its strong run (up 3.6% this morning, +2.2% yesterday), and copper eased back -0.34% yesterday.