Research Archive

Macro: Equity markets were mixed yesterday with the S&P500 (-0.08%) and Nasdaq (+0.35%). Europe’s Stoxx 600 index (+0.92%). In the US, six of the eleven sectors were in positive territory and 49% of stocks ended higher. For the S&P, Utilities and Consumer Staples were the best performers, while Health Care and Financials were weakest. Eli Lilly (-14.1%) shares dropped after underwhelming results from its new weight-loss pill, which overshadowed the strong performance of its existing obesity drug, whereas the news was positive for rival Novo Nordisk which rose (+6.7%) on the back of this. In Europe, In Europe, seven of the eleven sectors were in positive territory with 72% of stocks finishing higher. ASML (+3.5%) and other European chip stocks rose after the European Union clarified that the 15% tariff ceiling remains in place for the bloc’s semiconductor exports to the US, despite Trump’s announcement of additional levies on chips. Allianz shares surged as much as (+4.1%), marking their biggest daily gain since April, after the German insurance giant reported strong second-quarter results. In economic news out of the US, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims were higher than expected, 226k (222k est.) and 1974k (1950k est.) respectively, with US Continuing Jobless Claims rising to its highest level since the end of 2021, adding to recent signs that the labour market is weakening. In Europe, Ireland unemployment rate rose to 4.9% (4.6% prior revised). From the central bankers, the Fed’s Musalem and the BOE’s Pill will be speaking today.

Stocks: Last night after the market closed Flutter reported a good set of Q2 results, with Revenue growth of 16% and Average Monthly Players (AMP) up 11%, which both beat expectations by 1.7%. Looking at the geographical breakdown, both US and International saw good revenue growth, +17.3 and +15% respectively, with organic growth of 4% in International. The beat in the US was largely attributed to favourable sporting outcomes (for FanDuel). Following these results, we update our PT to $330 from $313, and continue to rate the stock an Overweight. We continue to use premium to peers valuations given the growth expectations but add in a DCF valuation to better capture this longer term growth.This morning FBD reported H1 2025 results that as expected were heavily impacted by the severe weather events, including heavy snowfall in January and Storm Eowyn, that led to a significant increase in claims activity. We maintain an Overweight rating on the stock and continue to value FBD based on forward earnings (12x) and book value (1.2x) for the PT of €16.10. We also appreciate the attractive yield (7.0%) from the €1 ordinary dividend, as well as the slightly lowered additional 75c special dividend, which combined provides a 12.5% yield. This morning Kingspan released its H1 trading update for the 6 months ended 30th June 2025 and overall, it was a muted result. Revenue came in at €4.5bn, representing an 8% YoY increase and 0.9% above expectations. Organic growth of 0.7% came in lower than the 4.03% forecasted. From a product perspective, Insulated Building Envelopes generated revenue of €3.7bn, compromised of -1% organic growth and M&A growth of 10%. Trading margins contracted by 50bps to 9.8% vs. the 10.3% reported in H1 2024. Given the weakness in Kingspan’s results and profit outlook we have revised the price target slightly lower to a target price of €84.70 from €88. We had forecasted H1 EPS of €1.82 however given the miss, FY25 expected EPS of €3.94 now seems challenging, given the 3% expected decline in FY25 operating profit. The valuation is derived from PE and EV/EBITDA implied multiples. This still represents a 18.2% upside from the company’s current price of €70.60. We still rate the company as an Overweight.This morning IRES released its trading update for the first half of the year and overall, it was a stable one. Revenue came in at €42.6m compared to €42.8m in H1 2024 representing a 0.4% decrease at a 99.5% occupancy rate YoY. Earnings grew +2.4% with adjusted EPRA earnings of €14.5m. We continue to hold a positive view on the company believing that any changes to the current rent cap regulations will be favourable for the shares. Additionally, as interest rates come down it offers a more favourable environment for new build activity aided by easing inflation throughout Europe. The recent downward trend in Irish inflation, coming in at an annualised rate of 1.7% in July is evidence of this. Moreover, the asset recycling program is healthy evidence of efficient and prudent management. We continue to hold an Overweight view on the stock with a PT of €1.26 which represents a 27.8% upside from its current price and approximately in line with the REIT’s NAV of €1.269.

Debt In the US, core bond yields rose slightly despite continuing jobless claims reaching their highest level since late 2021. In Europe, yields were mixed. UK Gilts rose despite the BOE’s 25bps rate cut yesterday.