Research Archive

Market Round Up: Global equity markets sold off aggressively yesterday as investors soured on AI capex spending coupled with weak quarterly results, in particular from Microsoft (-10%). The S&P500 dropped 0.1%, the Nasdaq fell 0.7% whilst the Eurostoxx600 fell 0.2% with weakness noted in the tech sector (-4.5%), led by SAP (-16.1%), who’s earnings failed to impress the market. After the market closed, several big names including Apple and Visa reported their Q1 26 results. Apple reported strong iPhone 17 sales and offered an upbeat forecast whilst Visa’s stock slipped in the premarket despite beating EPS estimates. On the macro front, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended 24th January came in at 209k (Est 205k) whilst factory orders for November came in stronger than expected at 2.7% (Est 1.6%). The Irish economy officially entered a technical recession as Q4 GDP showed a contraction of -0.6%, having contracted by -0.3% in Q3, due to changes in the multinational sector. Overnight reports indicated that President Trump will pick former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jay Powell as the new Chairman of the US central bank, leading to a rally in the US Dollar as Warsh is viewed as an inflation hawk. An announcement is expected this afternoon. In Asian markets this morning, Japan is up 0.6% whilst Hong Kong is down 2.0% and Mainland China is 1.0% lower. Yesterday’s weakness carried over into Asian trading this morning.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: On the macro front today, seasonally adjusted Q4 GDP will be released in the EU, as well as in France and Germany. Preliminary CPI data for January will also be released in Ireland and Germany, alongside UK Mortgage Approvals in the UK and December PPI final demand in the US. Some big energy names will post their quarterly results today. Chevron (Q4 25) and Exxon Mobil (Q4 25) taking centre stage. Analysts will be keen to see any updates relating to the opportunities in Venezuela. Other names to keep an eye out for include American Express, Verizon Communications and Aon.

Stocks in focus: Apple (Overweight, PT $290, 12.3% upside / ACL) – Commentary post quarterly results/rating and PT increase. Visa (Coverage Transferred to CF&Co. Overweight PT $400) – Update on quarterly results/coverage transfer. TotalEnergies (Overweight, PT €65 6.5% upside) – Mozambique LNG restart confirmation. Smithson Investment Trust – Proposed wind-up and cash exit.

Bonds: US Treasuries rose slightly yesterday as a safe haven asset as investors pulled away from stocks. The two-year note yield fell to 3.56%, its lowest level since January 15th. Demand for the $44bn 7-year auction was relatively contained to a yield of 4.0%. The German 10-year yield dropped 2bps to 2.84%. The UK will auction up to £4bn of short-dated bills, in the only issuance highlight of the day. From central bank speakers we have the Fed’s Bowman, Miran and Musalem. We will also hear from the ECB’s Vujcic.

Commodities: The gold rally snapped yesterday with the precious metal falling 0.8%. That weakness has continued this morning, with gold down 4.0% to $5,160, off the back of Dollar strength over the imminent announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. Silver stayed positive yesterday up 0.8% but fell aggressively this morning, down 8.0%. In energy markets WTI gained 3.5% yesterday as OPEC+ confirmed it would stick with its supply pause. This morning WTI is down 1.8%.