Research Archive

Market Round Up: Global equity markets whipsawed yesterday as traders reacted to mixed signals about future oil supplies amid the conflict in Iran. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Nasdaq finished unchanged, and the Euro Stoxx 600 advanced 1.9%. Oracle reported an upbeat quarter based on AI demand and solid SAAS performance, closing up 10% aftermarket. Hermes rose 2.3%, after an analyst upgraded the stock from hold to buy. US Feb. Small Business Optimism fell 0.5 points to 98.8; Est. 99.6. Despite the decline, the index remains slightly above the long-term average. To note, the survey was conducted before the war with Iran began on the final day of the month. With operating costs that were already elevated, higher oil prices could unsettle small businesses. Existing home sales surprised to the upside in February as improved sentiment pushed buyers to close on deals, with sales jumping 1.7% to an annualised pace of 4.09 million in February, from an upwardly revised pace of 4.02 million in January. Meanwhile, G-7 nations asked their energy agencies to draft scenarios for a potential release of emergency oil reserves. Oil prices have climbed more than 40% since the start of the year, as the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, intensifies pressure on Gulf region producers to limit output with each passing day of the Iran conflict.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets traded mostly higher this morning, with Japan up 0.9%, Hong Kong down 0.2%, and China gaining 0.5%. In macro news, in the US we have MBA Mortgage Applications at 11:00 and Core CPI at 12:30 which is expected to ease slightly. Companies reporting today, include Legal & General Group PLC (Y 2025 Earnings), Supermarket Income REIT PLC (S1 2026 Earnings) and Mincon Group Plc (Y 2025 Earnings).

Stocks in focus: Supermarket Income REIT (Overweight TP 90p +14.8% Upside) – Comments on solid 1H26 results. FBD (Overweight PT €17.50, c. 6% upside) – CEO and CFO meeting summary

Bonds: Volatile energy markets intensified the pressure on Treasuries, already weighed down by concerns over the Iran conflict, a wave of corporate bond issuance, and a soft $58 billion US auction. Worries that a deeper supply shock could revive inflation and stall economic growth have continued to restrain bond performance.The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose six basis points to 4.16%. Germany’s 10-year yield slipped two basis points to 2.84%, while the U.K.’s 10-year yield fell nine basis points to 4.55%.Today we have $39B issue of US 10-year notes, followed on Thursday by a $22B sale of 30-year bonds.

Commodities: It was a volatile day across commodity markets yesterday. At one point crude oil hit $81.7/bl before rebounding as reports suggested Iran had begun mining the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Trump to warn of severe consequences. However, this morning crude futures held steady following the IEA’s plan to release reserves, with WTI at $83.5 and Brent at $87.8 per barrel. Gold ended 1.03% higher at $ 5192.