Markets Update – October 2022

05.10.2022

The third quarter saw continued volatility, a 14% rally for global equities in the first six weeks of the quarter completely negated by quarter end, global equities returning -0.2% in euro terms over the quarter. Bonds also fared poorly, an initial drop in yields more than reversing to leave 10-year German bond yields almost 80 basis points higher on the quarter, with a similar rise in US 10-year yields. Stubbornly high inflation readings and the resultant hawkish rhetoric from central banks, particularly from mid-point of the quarter was the main driver of market volatility. At the end of the quarter, global equities are down 13.5% year-to-date in euro terms, a number that is flattered by the 14% fall in the value of the euro. Globally bond yields have risen by more than 200 basis points year-to-date, leading to large drawdowns in bonds (more than 20%). The Federal Reserve has increased rate by 300 basis points so far following 3 consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes and markets are currently pricing a further 125 basis points before the year is out. Even the ECB has finally moved away from negative rates, moving the deposit rate to zero in July and 75 basis points in September, with another 125 basis points priced before year-end.