- Equity Markets: Global equities had a mixed day yesterday, despite strength in US tech and a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The S&P500 finished flat, the Nasdaq increased by +0.55% but European stocks dipped -0.1%. In the US five of eleven sectors were positive with 24% of companies rising on the day. Information Technology (+1.05%) and Communication Services (+1.04%) were the strongest. Real Estate (-2.66%) and Consumer Staples (-2.0%) were the weakest. Nvidia became the worlds first $5tr market cap company after the stock rose +3.0% over the day. After the closing bell, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta all reported. Alphabet shares are up 6.7% premarket after the company reported record revenue aided by strong Google Cloud growth. On the flip side Meta stock is down -7.4% after the company missed earnings due to a one-off tax charge and the announcement of increased spending to meet AI demands into 2026. In Europe five of eleven sectors were positive with 40.8% of stocks higher on the day. Energy (+1.23%) and Health Care (+0.86%) were the strongest. Communication Services (-1.90%) and Consumer Staples (-0.72%) were the weakest. Next Plc, the clothing outlet lifted guidance after sales comfortably surpassed what was seen as conservative estimates. The stock finished the day up +8.8%
- Macro:In macro news yesterday the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a further 25bps taking the base rate to between 3.75%-4.0%. Chairman Powell did send caution through markets saying, “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion – far from it”.Overnight President Trump said he had an “amazing meeting” with Xi Jinping around a potential trade deal. Trump confirmed that the US would cut China’s fentanyl tariff by 10% while China will resume buying US soybeans. The US will also suspend, for one year the implementation of the “50% rule” for export controls that was announced on the 29th of September. It was also confirmed that the US and China would reopen talks around the sale of Nvidia chips into China, however no discussion on the Blackwell chip (currently Nvidia’s most powerful chip) has taken place yet.In macro news today, focus will turn to the ECB, with policymakers expected to keep the base interest rate at 2.15%. We are also expected to get October CPI in Germany (est 2.2% YoY) and seasonally adjusted Q3 GDP in the Eurozone (est 0.1%). In the US focus will be on initial jobless claims for the week ended October 25th (est 228k). Q3 GDP will also be published (est 3.0%).
- Stocks: Shell: (Overweight. PT: £32, c.11% upside): Commentary on solid Q3 results. Revised PT from £31 to £32, maintain overweight. TotalEnergies: (Overweight. PT: €65 c.20% Upside): Commentary on mixed Q3 results. PT increased from €62 to €65. Maintain overweight. PTSB: (Overweight. PT: €2.60, 15% upside): Update on Q3 results and details on the announcement of a formal sales process. Smurfit Westrock (Overweight PT: $52.80, 39% upside): Update following Q3 results released yesterday afternoon.
- Debt: The Federal Reserve cut the base rate by 25bps in a 10-2 vote, however chairman Powell acknowledged there was no guarantee of a cut in December. Two-year bonds had their worst day in four months and the market pricing for a 25bps cut in December is now 70%.
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