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Daily Note 29/08/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

29.08.2025



  • Macro: Equity markets were mixed yesterday with the S&P500 +0.32% and the Nasdaq +0.53%. In Europe stocks fell by 0.20%. Strong economic data pushed stocks to new record highs, although traders held back from major moves ahead of the upcoming inflation report later today. Markets are currently pricing a more than 80% probability of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve in September and another cut by year end. In the US, seven of the eleven sectors were in positive territory and 44% of stocks ended higher. Communication Services (+0.94%) and Energy (+0.68%) were best, while Utilities (-0.87%) and Consumer Staples (-0.46%) were weakest. Broadcom (+2.8%) jumped after Nvidia’s strong quarterly results reinforced investor confidence in the AI driven demand cycle. In Europe, three of the eleven sectors were in positive territory and 38% of stocks ended higher. Consumer Discretionary (+0.53%) and Materials (+0.32%) were best, with Real Estate (-1.16%) and Communication Services (-0.91%) weakest. In macro news yesterday, the European Union introduced draft regulations to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial products and extend preferential access to certain American agricultural and seafood goods. In return, the EU expects the United States to reduce tariffs on European cars and auto parts from 27.5% to 15%, with the lower rate on vehicles applied retroactively starting 1 August. In the US, Q2 GDP rose to 3.3% (3.1% est) driven by stronger business investment and a significant contribution from trade, while Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims were slightly below estimates at 229k (230k est) and 1954k (1966k est) respectively. Economic releases today in Europe include Germany CPI and Unemployment Change, while in the US, we have Core PCE, Wholesale Inventories and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index releases.
  • Debt: European bonds have trended higher this week as volatility subsided following last week’s Jackson Hole meeting. We get key inflation data from both the US and Europe today and expectations are pointing towards European inflation falling below the ECB’s target of 2%. Should that transpire, bonds are likely to enjoy a continued rally into month end.