- Market Round Up: Yesterday traders pushed U.S. stocks to all-time highs amid optimism over corporate earnings. The dollar, meanwhile, dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years as indications of potential U.S. support for the yen reinforced speculation about coordinated efforts to push the dollar lower against major trading partners. The S&P500 rose +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.9% and Europe +0.6%. In after-hours trading, Texas Instruments delivered an upbeat outlook and the stock rose 8.2%, whilst ASML also delivered solid results this morning, as AI demand for both analogy, and memory chips continue to increase. Nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates, according to Bloomberg data. HSBC (+2.8%) has become the first European lender to surpass $300 billion market capitalisation, following a price-target upgrade from another broker driven by stronger wealth-management fees and recovering interbank lending rates in Hong Kong. Asian markets are mixed this morning (Tokyo -0.8%, China +0.26%), while Hong Kong is up 2.2%, as HK listed tech stocks outperformed. This morning, European and U.S. stock futures are pointing higher, while the dollar is clawing back some overnight losses as Asian currencies slip. Treasury yields are up, but Japan Government Bond yields are down across the curve.
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Today the market will be focused on results from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, with Apple reporting tomorrow. Analysts expect the Mag 7 to post 20% profit growth in the fourth quarter, the weakest rate since early 2023, placing the group under pressure to show that their heavy capital spending is finally delivering stronger returns. On the macro front this morning, German consumer confidence beat expectations. In the US, we get MBA Mortgage Applications and the FOMC rate decision this evening
- Stocks in focus: Ryanair (Overweight, PT €31.80 c.15% upside) – Commentary after meeting with IR team post Q3 results. LVMH (Neutral, PT €630, c. 7% upside) – Commentary post Q4 and FY25 results released last night.
- Bonds: With the shift in focus to the weaker Dollar, the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.24%, rising three basis points. Germany’s 10-year yield rose to 2.88%, up 1 basis point. The U.K.’s 10-year gilt yield climbed to 4.53%, up three basis points. The 2-year Treasury yield slipped to 3.57%, down two basis points. The 30-year Treasury yield moved higher to 4.84%, an increase of four basis points.The Fed is expected to pause its rate cuts as a steadier job market rebuilds consensus among policymakers after earlier divisions. with the next rate cut anticipated in July, and the potential for an additional move later in the year. The expected rate pause is likely to intensify Trump’s frustration, as he has been pushing for cuts. We have Elderson and Schnabel from the ECB speaking today
- Commodities: This morning, oil is stable as Trump highlighted increased U.S. military activity near Iran, while traders assessed the impact of a major winter storm and with the softer Dollar lifting commodity appeal. Gold, silver and platinum are all extending their gains.
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