- Market Round Up: Global equities moved noticeably higher yesterday as investors gained confidence ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. The S&P500 gained 0.8% whilst the Nasdaq rose by 1.3%. European equities also edged higher yesterday, climbing 0.7% with Technology stocks climbing (+1.5%) throughout the day. After the market closed, Nvidia posted solid 4Q25 results and offered strong guidance for 1Q26. 4Q revenue of $68.1bn represented 73% YoY growth (Est. $65.9bn) with data centre revenue up 75% YoY. Operating income hit $46.1bn up 81% YoY (Est. $44.6bn) with EPS of $1.62 (Est. $1.52). Management guided to Q1 revenue of $76.4bn – $79.6bn, beating street forecasts (Est. $72.8bn) with CEO Jensen Huang acknowledging “computing demand is growing exceptionally & customers are racing to invest in AI compute”. Despite excellent results, the stock is only up 0.2% in the premarket. On the macro side, it was a relatively quiet day with the highlight being final Eurozone CPI for January, coming in line at 1.7%. MBA Mortgage Applications increased by 0.4% for the week ended the 20th February, a drop from the 2.8% noted the prior week. From a wider equity perspective European staples struggled, falling 1.2% in part by muted Diageo earnings and a rotation into growth names. In the US, it was a very solid day for Axon Enterprises (+17.6%) as the taser company reported strong Q4 earnings and a revised higher its revenue guidance for FY26
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian equities have started mixed this morning, as momentum from yesterday’s close is struggling to continue. Japan is up 1.0% however Hong Kong is down 0.9% whilst China is 0.3% lower. On the macro side today, initial jobless claims for the week ended the 21st February will be published in the US. Its estimated claims will rise from 206k to 216k. Continuing claims will also be published. In Europe, M3 Money Supply for January will be updated with estimates suggesting a rise to 2.9%. From an earnings perspective today a number of big US names will release with particular focus directed to Warner Bros (FY25) after the company agreed to reopen talks with Paramount over a potential takeover earlier in the week. Other names to look out for include Vistra Corp Intuit and Monster Beverage. From our coverage Allianz reported this morning whilst Flutter will release their Q4 results after the market closes in the US tonight.
- Stocks in focus: Allianz (Neutral PT €382 0.7% upside) – Q4 results commentary.
- Bonds: The US 10-Year yield moved 2bps higher yesterday to 4.05% as investors took a risk on approach. Additionally, the $70bn 5-year auction traded at a yield of 3.61% which was the lowest result for this tenor since November. The German 10 year was flat at 2.71% whilst the UK 10-year yield rose by 1bp to 4.32%. On the auction side, today the US will issue 4-week ($105bn) 8-week ($95bn) and 7-year ($44bn) notes. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lagarde and Dolence whilst we will also have speeches from the Fed’s Bowman and BOE’s Lombardelli.
- Commodities: Despite risk-on sentiment yesterday, gold also moved higher (+0.4%) and is continuing higher this morning, gaining 0.5% to $5,191 as a build-up of US troops in the Middle East continues to keep global markets on edge. WTI fell 0.8% yesterday and down a further 0.1% this morning as US oil inventories rose by 15.99m barrels, up 3.8% for the week ending 20th February. Copper is 0.9% higher as the market keenly awaits data on industrial demand from China.
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