- Market Round Up: It was a negative day for global equities as concerns grew among investors over the lack of a deal between the US and Iran, despite President Trump extending the ceasefire until an agreement is reached. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell 0.6%, whilst the Euro Stoxx 600 declined 0.9%. The largest homebuilder in the US, D.R. Horton, gained 5.8% yesterday after delivering solid earnings, posting Q2 EPS of $2.24 – a 9c beat versus estimates -driven by healthy gross margin growth to 20.1%. The strong numbers offer a positive read-through for Kingspan Group, as it continues to build out its roofing business in the US. Associated British Foods (-3.0%) confirmed it will separate its Primark business, effectively breaking up one of the UK’s largest conglomerates. Primark is set to join the FTSE 100 following the spin-off.After the market closed last night ASM International (+7.2% premarket) released a solid set of Q1 results, beating revenue estimates with EPS growth of 62.2% YoY. Management acknowledged that AI-driven demand and continues to propel growth and expects revenue in H2 to be higher than H1. The German ZEW Survey Expectations came in weaker than expected, falling to -17.2 (Est. -5.8), whilst the Current Situation component was also softer at -73.7 (Est. -70.5). US retail sales for March grew by 1.7% (Est. 1.4%), with auto and gas sales more than double expectations.
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets are mixed this morning. Japan is down 0.6%, while Hong Kong is down 1.4%. China is up 0.4%. On the earnings front, we will receive updated Q1 sales results from L’Oréal after the market closes. A sales update is also expected from French supermarket chain Carrefour, which has direct links to Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR), as several of its stores sit within SUPR’s portfolio. Danone and EssilorLuxottica will also post results. In the US, results (all Q1)are due from Boeing, AT&T, Texas Instruments, IBM, and Tesla. On the macro side, MBA mortgage applications for the week ended 17 April will be published later today. Earlier this morning, UK CPI for March was released, coming in line at 3.3% YoY (Est. 3.3%).
- Stocks in focus: Novo Nordisk (Neutral PT DKK266, 7% upside) – Amazon GLP-1 services launch and Medicare coverage extension
- Bonds: Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East ceasefire alongside Warsh’s Senate Fed confirmation hearing appearance, where he sounded less dovish than expected, pushed US Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year experiencing its largest increase since March, rising 4bps to 4.29%. The German 10-year yield rose 2bps to 3.0%, while the UK 10-year increased 5bps to 4.88%. On the auction side, Germany and the EU will issue €2bn and €3.5bn of bonds and bills, respectively, while in the US, the Treasury will issue $69bn of 17-week bills. Central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Lagarde, Dolence, Müller, Rehn, Lane, Kocher, Schnabel, and Nagel, while the BoE’s Breeden will also be speaking in London.
- Commodities: Oil rose 2.8% yesterday to $92.13 due to continued uncertainty around a peace deal; however, this morning, following President Trump’s comments on extending the ceasefire, oil is down 3.65% to $88.77. Gold fell 2.1% yesterday but is up 0.9% this morning.
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