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Daily Note 21/11/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

27.11.2025



  • Equity Markets: Equity markets had a roller coaster of a day yesterday with the S&P500 opening up 1.5% before declining for most of the day to end -1.56% and the Nasdaq -2.15%, as Europe held on to smaller gains and ended +0.40%. In the US, only one sector was in positive territory and 71% of stocks ended lower. Consumer Staples and Real Estate were best. IT and Consumer Discretionary were weakest. In a generally “risk off” day, Walmart was the standout performer rising 6.5% following Q3 results beat and raised Q4 guidance. Nvidia following it strong results initially traded up c. 5% but ended the day down -3.15%. In Europe, eight of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with Industrials and Energy best, with Real Estate and Communication Services worst. BNP Paribas rose 4.4% on a new buyback plan and capital targets.
  • Macro: In European economics, the UK’s CBI Total Orders index in November rose less than expected to -37 from -38, and Eurozone Construction Output fell -0.5% MoM and Consumer Confidence for November was stable at -14.2. This morning, we had the UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) which declined slightly to -19 from -17, Retail Sales (Oct) fell more than expected at -1.0% MoM for the ex-fuel measure, versus -0.5% estimate, and Public Sector Net Borrowing (Oct) was £17.4bn, lower than £19.9bn in Sept, but £2.4bn above estimates. In the US, after a long pause, the change in Non-Farm Payrolls was +119K for September (vs -4K prev. and 51K est.), whilst the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% above the 4.3% estimated. Average Hourly Earnings rose +3.8% YoY, flat on previous month. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook improved to -1.7 from -12.8 (missing the +1.0 est.). Initial Jobless Claims for Week ended Nov 15th were slightly better than expected at 220K from 228K previously.Economic releases today include Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs for France, Germany, Eurozone, UK and the US (Nov P), where flat to slightly weaker numbers are expected (ex-France). As well as French Business & Manufacturing Confidence (Nov), Eurozone Negotiated Wages (3Q +2.45 est.), Irish PPI (Oct). Then from the US we have University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Nov F 50.6 est.) and Real Average Weekly Earnings (Sep)
  • Stocks: Nestle: (Overweight CHF 87.76 +11% Upside) Comments relating to senior management changes.
  • Debt: Despite shaky risk sentiment US bonds had to contend with a hawkish tone from the Fed. European rates were little changed ahead of a raft of November PMIs due today.