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Daily Note 17/02/2026 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

17.02.2026



  • Market Round Up:  It was a quiet day in markets with the US closed for President’s Day. In Europe the Stoxx Europe 600 ended the day little changed at +0.13%. NatWest (+4.7%) led the Bank sector to strong 1.4% move yesterday, as it commenced a buyback program and saw upgrades after its result from Friday.    The only data release of note was the Eurozone’s Industrial Production figures that showed a slowdown in the region’s production in December by -1.4% MoM.
  • Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets are mostly closed this morning for Chinese Lunar New Year, but Tokyo is down a moderate -0.7%.   Today the market will be focused on the UK’s employment and earnings data, which saw the unemployment rate rise to 5.2% from 5.1%, estimated and previous, and average weekly earnings are up less than expected at 4.2%. Later this morning we get the German ZEW expectations survey, which is expected to see a solid bounce to 65.2 from 59.6. In the US Empire Manufacturing index is expected to be down to 6.2 from 7.7, and the NAHB Housing Market index is expected to be roughly flat at 38. On the earnings front this morning we have Kerry group, Antofagasta and IHG Group. Both Antofagasta and BHP reported solid results driven by copper, which should have a positive read across for Rio later in the week. Also, IHG may give some insight into the health of the travel industry on its earnings call. And later this afternoon in the US, Vulcan Material report, which should speak to the state of the cement and aggregates business in the US, useful colour ahead of CRH’s numbers on Wednesday.  
  • Stocks in focus: Kerry Group (Overweight PT €116 +48% upside) – Update post FY25 results and revised higher PT from €111 to €116.
  • Bonds: Government bonds were little changed yesterday, with the exception of the UK where yields fell 2bps. It is a moderately busy day on the issuance side with the UK, Switzerland, German and Finland issuing paper, as well as a raft of US treasury bills later this afternoon. Today we have the Fed’s Barr and Daly, as well as the ECB’s Escriva and Makhlouf speaking.
  • Commodities: Brent Oil is down -0.8% this morning, after an upward +1.3% move yesterday, on news that Iran’s navy performed drills in the Gulf near shipping lanes, though talks continue in Geneva with the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA. This morning, gold and silver are down 1.6% and 2.6% respectively, after 1% declines yesterday.