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Daily Note 12/09/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

12.09.2025



  • Equity: Equity markets had a positive day yesterday with the S&P500 +0.85% and the Nasdaq +0.72%, as confidence around a Fed rate cut grew following the release of inline CPI data. Europe was +0.55%. In the US, ten of eleven sectors were in positive territory and 87% of stocks ended higher. Materials and Healthcare were best. Energy and IT were weakest, with weakness seen in both semiconductors and software & services. Oracle fell 6%, Broadcom and AMD both declined more than 2% following strong performance on Wednesday. In Europe, nine of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with Industrials and Materials best, with Energy and IT worst. Defence and aerospace stocks such as BAE Systems (+6.3%), Airbus (+2.9%) Rheinmetall (+2.3%) and Leonardo (+2.9%) performed strongly following Russia’s drone incursion into Poland.
  • Macro: In macro news yesterday the ECB kept its Deposit Facility rate steady at 2%, as expected, and expectations for further cuts diminished after the ECB President’s press conference. The ECB raised its forecast for 2026’s inflation from 1.6% to 1.7%, with an increase in GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.2% from 0.9%. In the US, the main release was YoY CPI ex food and energy for August at 3.1% as expected, which maintained the probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on 17/09. Economic releases today include the UK’s BoE/Ipsos Inflation Next 12 Months (Aug) and from the US, the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey (Sep). From the Central Bankers, following the ECB rate decision, we have the ECB’s Rehn, Kocher, and Nagel
  • Stocks: Dalata Hotel Group: (De-listing). Shareholder approval of sale to Pandox AB and Eiendomsspar .Ryanair Holdings: (Overweight PT €29.50 Upside 25%) Review of AGM and comments on recent updates.
  • Debt: European bonds again slightly underperformed their US counterparts due to a combination of a slightly more upbeat ECB and softer than expected US economic data.