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Daily Note 11/09/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

11.09.2025



  • Equity: Equity markets had a mixed day yesterday with the US up, supported by weaker than expected PPI data and strong Oracle earnings. The S&P500 was up +0.3%, while the Nasdaq and European stocks were flat on the day. In the US, five of eleven sectors were positive with 40% of stocks finishing higher. Energy (+1.77%) and Information Technology (+1.76%) were the two strongest sectors. Consumer Discretionary (-1.58%) and Consumer Staples (-1.06%) were the weakest. Oracle shares jumped +36%, its biggest one-day gain since 1992, after the software giant confirmed its remaining performance obligations rose 359% to $455bn during the last quarter. In Europe, three of eleven sectors were positive with 42% of companies finishing higher on the day. Industrials (+0.55%) and Utilities (+0.47%) were the strongest. Communication Services (-1.23%) and Information Technology (-1.23%) were the weakest. Associated British Foods, had a noticeably weak day, with shares falling -13% after the company reported weak sales at Primark and an “uncertain” consumer environment.
  • Macro: In macro news yesterday, US PPI unexpectedly declined for the first time in four months. PPI for August was -0.1% (est. +0.3%) MoM and 2.6% (est. 3.3%) YoY. MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended 5th September increased by 9.2% whilst final Wholesale Inventories for July increased +0.1% MoM (est. 0.2%). In macro news today, the focus in Europe will be on the ECB interest rate decision. It is estimated that the bank will leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 2.15%. In the US, CPI for the month of August will be the key data print of the day. Inflation is expected to increase 0.3% MoM to an annualised rate of 2.9%.
  • Stocks: TotalEnergies: (Overweight PT €62 Upside 17.5%). Details around recent deals in the LNG space. Datalex: (De-listing) EGM approved delisting, ahead of 11th September, which is its last day on the Euronext Dublin.
  • Debt: Bond markets finished relatively unchanged yesterday despite a much weaker than expected US PPI report as the market rallied into US 10-year supply but came off a little afterwards.