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Daily Note 10/12/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

11.12.2025



  • Equity Markets: Global equities had a relatively mixed day yesterday as investors brace for the Federal Reserve rate call later today. The S&P500 fell -0.09%, the Nasdaq gained +0.13% whilst European stocks dropped -0.10%.  In the US, six of eleven sectors were positive with 43% of companies moving higher on the day. Energy (+0.7%), and Consumer Staples (+0.3%) were the strongest. Healthcare (-1.0%) and Industrials (-0.7%) were the weakest. JP Morgan had a particularly weak day (-4.7%), after the largest bank in the US warned that it expects to see a higher cost base throughout 2026. The gold mining company, Newmont Corp saw its shares jump +5.7% as traders moved into precious metals ahead of the Fed’s rate cutting decision later. In Europe two of eleven sectors were positive with 42% of stocks rising on the day. Financials (+0.6%) and Consumer Staples (+0.2%) were the strongest. Healthcare (-0.7%) and Energy (-0.6%) were the weakest. German lawmakers approved a record €52bn spend on 29 military contracts to strengthen its army. Stocks like Hensoldt AG (+5.9%) and Rheinmetall (+3.6%) strengthened off the back of the news.
  • Macro: In macro news yesterday, US JOLTS Job Openings for October came in better than expected at 7670k (est. 7117k), its best report in 5 months, however it was offset by weaker hiring and layoffs which continued to indicate a soft labour market. In Europe, the German Chancellor Fredrick Merz critiqued elements of a new US national security strategy set forward by President Trump last week and acknowledged Europe must become more independent from the US in terms of security policy.  All the focus today will be on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. At present traders are pricing in an 89% probability of a 25bps cut to 3.75% (at the upper bound). MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended 5th of December will also be published alongside Personal Income data for October.
  • Stocks: Rio Tinto: (Overweight PT 6120p,+11% Upside): Details on Rio’s recent site visit for investors to their Argentina Lithium facility.
  • Debt: Bond yields have seen upward pressure in recent weeks driven by a couple of factors. Namely, Japanese long end yields have been rising ahead of the BOJ rate call next week whilst the market is also paring back expectations on the number of Fed cuts next year, now down to two.