- Market Round Up: Equity markets were on the weaker side yesterday with the S&P500 flat, the Nasdaq down 0.44% and Euro Stoxx 600 down 0.19%. Energy stocks rebounded (+3.2%) with the strong move in oil prices yesterday. I.T. in the US was particularly weak with Semiconductors down 2.2%. Rocket the mortgage services company jumped 7% in the aftermarket on Trump’s plan to get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200bn of mortgage-backed securities to help reduce mortgage rates for consumers.This morning Asian markets are positive with Tokyo up 0.85%, China is up 0.45% and Hong Kong is up 0.28%. Investors await the Non-Farm Payrolls data and the Supreme Court Ruling on the legality of Trump’s imposition of tariffs
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Following on from Tesco, Associated British Foods PLC, M&S, which had mixed results yesterday, this morning we had J Sainsbury’s sales report, which rose 3.4% in Q3, but was below expectations of 4.3%. Also giving a positive steer on ongoing AI chip demand, TSMC reported +20% YoY growth in December sales. Looking at the day ahead, the main focus today will be on the release of Non-Farm Payrolls data for December, for which the market is expecting 70K which is higher than the previous 64K for November, with the Unemployment rate expected to be at 4.5%. These releases follow yesterday’s decline in Job Cuts by 8.3%, and slightly better than expected initial jobless claims. The more forward-looking data set, the University of Michigan Sentiment index for January, is also released today with 53.5 the expected level.
- Stocks in focus: Rio Tinto (Neutral PT 6120p -1.2% upside) – we downgrade our rating to Neutral on news of a potential merger with Glencore, and after a strong run that leaves little upside to our unchanged target price. Infineon Technologies (Overweight PT €45.60 +12.4% upside) – Reiterate investment case, underpinned by opportunistic growth in AI and software defined vehicle (SDV) demand post CEO interview on Wednesday.
- Bonds: European bonds fell yesterday as the market digests €66bn of supply this week. Today we get further supply of shorter dated paper from Italy, Japan and the UK. German Industrial production rose 0.8% well above the -0.7% expected which may give the bond markets pause for thought, though exports from Germany remain weak at -2.5% in November. The NY Fed’s 1-year Inflation expectation continued to rise to 3.42% from 3.2% last month, potentially hampering rate cutting expectations. And Kashkari, who is a hawk will also be speaking, but any hawkish tone may be offset by Barkin, a centrist Fed member.
- Commodities: Oil continued a rebound this morning with WTI up 1.2%, following on from yesterday’s 3.2% upward move, as a result of Trump’s threats to Iran as protests continue there. Copper fell 1.4% yesterday after a strong run in recent weeks.
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