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Daily Note 05/09/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

05.09.2025



  • Macro:Global equity markets had a positive day yesterday with the S&P500 up +0.83% and the Nasdaq up +0.98% as investors wait for key job market data later today. European stocks closed the day up +0.61%. In the US, ten of eleven sectors were in positive territory with 73% of stocks up on the day. Consumer Discretionary (+2.25%) and Communication Services (+1.12%) were the strongest, whilst Utilities (-0.16%) was the weakest. Afterhours Broadcom released a solid set of quarterly numbers and offered an upbeat Q4 forecast after AI revenue jumped 63% in Q3. The stock is up over 4% in premarket trading. In Europe, ten of eleven sectors were in positive territory with 71% of stocks up on the day. Communication Services (+1.82%) and Information Technology (+1.70%) were the two strongest sectors, whilst Consumer Discretionary (-0.43%) was the weakest. ASML saw its shares rise 3.6% after an investment bank upgraded its view on the business.   In macro news yesterday, President Trump signed an Executive Order implementing the US trade deal with Japan, which will impose a maximum 15% tariff on Japanese imports into the US. This morning UK retail sales (including auto fuel) for July came in at +0.6% (est. +0.2%). Ex auto fuel growth of +0.5% (est. +0.3%) MoM. Also, in Germany this morning, factory orders in July slumped, driven by large-scale orders, dropping by 2.9% (est. +0.5%) from JuneIn macro news today, the US will release August nonfarm payroll and unemployment data. Estimates suggest 75k new jobs for the month which would result in a fourth straight month of jobs growth below 100k. The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, its highest level since 2021. In Europe, final Q2 employment data in the Eurozone will be released. The prior estimates showed YoY growth of 0.7% and QoQ growth of 0.1%.
  • Stocks:Cairn Homes: (Overweight PT €2.46 Upside 13.6%). Summary of meeting with CFO and IR to discuss solid H1 results and a PT increase. Datalex: (De-listing) EGM approved delisting, ahead of 11th September, which is its last day on the Euronext Dublin
  • Debt: Bond yields fell yesterday ahead of an expected weaker Payrolls report as labour market data (ADP, Jolts, Initial Jobless and Employment components of ISM surveys) points towards a softening and a cut by the Fed.