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Daily Note 04/02/2026 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

09.02.2026



  • Market Round Up:    Global equity moved lower yesterday as investors continued to reduce exposure to the tech sector whilst rotating into economically sensitive areas of the market. The S&P500 dropped 0.84%, the Nasdaq fell 1.43% with software names such as Gartner (-21%) and ServiceNow (-7%) among the biggest decliners in response to Anthropic’s launch a co-work platform that can automate tasks such as legal contract review. Closer to home the Eurostoxx600 ended broadly flat with mining companies such as Anglo America and Rio Tinto among the stand-out performers.After the market closed, AMD reported a solid beat and raise in their quarterly report however, a lack of more meaningful agentic AI-driven demand saw the shares fall 8.1%. Novo Nordisk ADR’s fell by 15% in overnight trading as 2026 guidance came in well below market expectations. On the macro front, French inflation data came in below expectations for January, which could put some downward pressure on the currency bloc’s numbers when they are reported later today. Irish PMI data indicated that manufacturing activity maintained the same pace of expansion as it had ended 2025.Overnight US President Donald Trump signed a bill ending the partial shutdown US Government, however fraught negotiations and a fresh funding cliff in September kept the Dollar under pressure with EUR/USD continuing to trade above 1.18.    Technology weakness spilt over into Asian markets. Japan is up 0.3% and Hong Kong rose just 0.5%. The Yen also continued to weaken against its G10 peers overnight as investors position for Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party to come out victorious in this weekend’s elections.
  • Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities:On the macro front today, Eurozone core inflation data will be closely watched ahead of the ECB’s rate decision on Thursday, expectations are for the read to hold steady at 2.3% for January. At 13.15, US ADP employment data hits the tap and will provide some colour on the US employment picture ahead of the key Non-Farm Payroll print on Friday. ISM data is likely to confirm that services level activity continued to expand in the US over the course of January Alphabet will report after the close tonight where there is scope for some upside to topline consensus as advertising channel checks for Q4 were healthy however management may guide capex above expectations for 2026, which could unnerve some investors. Other names to keep an eye out for include Eli Lilly, Uber and Qualcomm
  • Stocks in focus: Novo Nordisk (Neutral, PT DKK334, – 14% downside) -Q4 results with poor FY26 guidance and PT downgrade to DKK334 to DKK422. Infineon Technologies (Overweight PT €47.0, 14.5% Upside) -Stable Q1 results and increased PT to €47.0 from €45.60 DCC (Overweight PT 7070p, 52% upside) – Solid Q3 interim management statement update. GSK (Neutral PT 1820p – 6.5% downside) – Solid Q4 results and PT increase to 1820p from 1660. PayPal (Cover transferred to CF & Co US team) – Q4 results and CEO change.Ryanair (Overweight €31.80 +9.7% Upside) – January traffic numbers.
  • Bonds: US Treasuries rose slightly yesterday as investors increasingly focused on the potential for a more dovish tilt from the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. The ten-year yield fell to 4.27%. The German 30-year yield climbed to its highest level since 2011 at 3.56% yesterday as investors demanded higher premiums to take account of increased issuance levels Germany will auction up to €4bn of 2.5% 2032 bonds whilst the EU will auction up to 3.5bn of shorter dated bills later today. From central bank speakers, embattled Fed Governor, Lisa Cook will speak on monetary policy at the Economic Club of Miami.
  • Commodities: Gold extended its recovery overnight climbing 2.36% following a 6.1% rally on Tuesday. Silver stayed positive yesterday up 4.75% following an 7.4% rally yesterday. In energy markets WTI built on yesterday’s gains of 1.7% by climbing an additional 0.8% this morning the US navy shot down an Iranian drone headed towards an aircraft carrier in the Arabian sea.