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Daily Note 03/03/2026 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

05.03.2026



  • Market Round Up: Despite the ongoing and widening conflict in the Gulf, US equity markets closed slightly higher yesterday, with the S&P +4bps and the Nasdaq +0.35%. Europe didn’t fare as well and was down 1.64%. With two drones striking near the US Embassy in Riyadh, it risks potentially pulling Saudi Arabia into a widening conflict against Iran.  The most relevant macro datapoints yesterday, namely Irish CPI was lower at 2.4% (10bps lower) and a raft of Manufacturing PMI’s that improved in Ireland, Germany and France, flat in the US and down slightly in the UK. UK House prices continued to rise 1% YoY in February based on the Nationwide data. Also, in the US the ISM Manufacturing survey overall was down slightly but better than feared, but the prices-paid component was up substantially to 70 from 59, which may drive continued inflation in the US system.   The aftermarket was relatively quiet yesterday.
  • Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets are weaker this morning with Tokyo down 3.2%, China down 1.6% and Hong Kong down 1.1%, these moves are reflecting the growing concerns as the Iran / US / Israeli war potentially expands.    On the macro data front it is a very light day, with only the Eurozone CPI for February expected with unchanged levels expected, and from the US only Wards Total Vehicle Sales expected to be 15.4m.
  • Stocks in focus: Ryanair (Overweight PT €31.80 17.8% upside) – February traffic data and oil price hedge information.
  • Bonds: Bond yields rose strongly yesterday as the market focused on the inflationary impacts of surging Natural Gas and Oil prices. US treasuries were up 10bps, Bunds 7bps and UK Gilts up a massive 14bps as the market questions the BOE rate cut it had more or less pencilled in on March 19th. Rate cut expectations reduced for each of the Fed, ECB and BOE
  • Commodities:   Yesterday saw a big move in European Gas prices which rose 40% and this morning they are up a further 12%, as flows of LNG from Qatar are disrupted with the Strait of Hormuz almost closed, and loading facilities closed. Similarly, but to a lesser extent oil rose 7% yesterday and continues to rise 3% this morning. Both Shell and TotalEnergies have supply agreements with Qatar for LNG, but should still benefit from the price increase given they both have alternative sources elsewhere to offset the loss of Qatari supply. Gold is little changed (down 0.14%) after rising less than 1% yesterday, therefore it is not pricing in extended risks from the Iran conflict.