- Market Round Up: Ahead of President Trump’s primetime address from the White House, equity markets had a moderately positive day with the S&P 500 up 0.72%, the Nasdaq up 1.13% and Europe was particularly positive up 2.5%. In his speech, Trump promised an intensification of the war efforts against Iran, after having achieved nearly all of the US’s unspecified war aims. Unfortunately, no clear timeline was provided, and he continues to berate the US’s historic allies, and purchasers of Gulf oil and LNG for not helping to secure the Strait of Hormuz. We had mixed data out of the US with ADP employment data solid at 62k vs 40k expected, and Retail Sales ex Autos up 0.5% MoM vs 0.3% expected, however the forward-looking ISM survey showed weakening new orders, which were less than expected and prices paid rose sharply. In Europe, the February unemployment rate ticked moved up to 6.2% and in Ireland for March the level rose to 4.7% from 4.6%. Nike declined 15% yesterday following its stalled turnaround reported in its latest results. Memory names were strong yesterday with Western Digital up 10%, Sandisk up 9%, Seagate up 8% and Micron +8.9%, after Intel (+8.8%) agreed to buy back Apollo Global Management’s stake in a joint venture related to its Ireland factory, pointing to stronger management confidence at Intel.
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities- This morning Asian markets are reacting badly to Trump’s speech, with Tokyo down 1.8%, Hong Kong down 1.5% and China down 1.3%. Today there is relatively little on the macro data front for the market to focus on, other than US initial jobless claims and the trade balance, which is expected to widen to c. $61bn. On the corporate side, it is all quiet ahead of the Easter break, with no major companies reporting or holding investor days.
- Stocks in focus: Ryanair (Overweight PT €30.50. C. 22% upside) – March monthly traffic stats and risk of fuel shortages from May.
- Bonds: Yields eased down in Europe yesterday but ended flat in the US. Fed members Barr and Musalem pointed to inflation and growth risks from the Iran war. Musalem highlighted that inflation ex tariffs is still at 2.5%. Musalem and Barr also pointed to AI having little productivity impact in macro data, with capex being the main beneficiary to date. Overall setting a slightly hawkish tone, whilst trying to portray a balanced approach. France is busy today with the government selling four long dated bonds (2034s, 2035s, 2044s, and 2048s).
- Commodities: After yesterday’s big drop in Brent crude (-14.5%), this morning the more internationally trade oil benchmark is up 6.7%, with WTI crude also up 6.4%, which is a clear reaction to Trump’s speech. European gas prices are up 6.2%. Gold is down 3.6% this morning following its four-day positive run.
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