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Daily Note 01/08/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

11.08.2025



  • Macro :Global equities had a weak day yesterday with the US down -0.37% and Europe down -0.75% despite healthy tech earnings. Both eBay (+18.3%) and Meta (+11.25%) had an excellent day after both posted very strong and robust quarterly results. In Europe, Anheuser-Busch (-11.6%) and Ferrari (-11.7%) were weak as the former reported a “meaningful volume miss” in Brazil and China, while the latter recorded a miss on revenue.In France preliminary July inflation came in at 0.9%, no change from June but slightly higher than the 0.8% forecasted and well below the 2% target rate of the ECB. In Germany inflation also slowed to 1.8% on an annualised basis, giving increased scope for the ECB to consider lowering rates again later this year. The Eurozone unemployment rate came in better than expected at 6.2% in June, lower than the 6.3% recorded in May. In the US, the PCE price index increased from 2.3% to 2.6% for June on an annualised basis. The core index rose 0.3% from May to an annualised rate of 2.8%, indicating there has been a stall in the decline of inflation to the 2% target.. Today final June Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data will be released (est. flat at 49.8). July’s Eurozone preliminary CPI (est. 1.9% from 2.0% YoY prev. and MoM -0.1%.) In the US July Nonfarm payrolls (est. 104k). The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2%. Also, in the US, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be updated for July (est. 49.5 vs 49.0 prev.) and the University of Michigan’s sentiment index (est. 62).
  • Stocks: We have results commentary on AIB Group (solid Q2 results given the current rate environment), and Apple Inc (Strong better than expected Q3 results) as well as a summary of a positive meeting with Ryanair’s IR team. Also, our CF&Co. US analyst raised the PT on Amazon from $260 to $280 following results last night.
  • Debt: Despite considerable inflation and employment related data, core bond yields were little changed yesterday, ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll release later today