Research Archive

Market Round Up: With President Trump indicating that the War in Iran may be ending soon as targets become scarcer, US markets stabilised with the S&P 500 down 8bps and the Nasdaq up 8bps. Energy stocks (+2.5%) and in particular refining stocks (+5.4%) rose strongly. European markets remained more sceptical and closed down 0.59%. Rheinmetall fell 8% as management’s outlook disappointed despite military spending growth and sales expected to grow 45% in 2026.Campbells had an earnings miss and downward revision on weak snack (chips and pretzels) sales and the stock fell 7%, possibly another victim of GLP-1 appetite suppression, but also ingredient inflation. Their Meals and Beverages business performed better. Kerry Group would likely be a supplier into Campbell’s, helping them with sodium reduction and flavour modulation with its “Tastesense” product line. The main market moving data point yesterday was the US CPI data which came in exactly in line with expectations (2.5% YoY for core CPI), which remains above the Fed’s 2% target level, and continues to be largely driven by Services inflation (+2.9%) and Food inflation remains above 3%, but the downward trend remains in place, but given the increase in the oil and gasoline prices market expectations for a Fed rate cut has moved out three months to October.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets are weaker this morning, with Tokyo down 1.3%, Hong Kong down 0.9% and China down 0.4%, as news of attacks on oil tankers in Iraqi waters emerged.On the macro front, the UK’s RICS February House Price balance survey came out at -12% down from -10% and weaker than the -8% expected, continuing to point to weakness in the UK housing market. Later this afternoon we get US Building Permits and Housing Starts data for January, which although possibly impacted by severe weather, will nevertheless provide helpful data for building materials plays such as CRH and Kingspan in the US. Today the market will be focused on BMW’s results that saw an YoY uplift in earnings in the Q4 in spite of lower revenue, with a stable outlook, unlike VW’s recent results. And later in the US we get Adobe’s earnings, which will give insights into AI impact on SaaS providers. Vulcan Materials holds its investor day, which may have interesting market insights for CRH.

Stocks in focus: PTSB (Overweight PT €3.47, 11% upside) – Update on potential bidder BAWAG’s interest.

Bonds: Bond markets saw yields spiking higher yesterday, with US yields up 7bps, Germany up 10bps and UK up 13bps. Irish yields also rose 11bps. Option implied market estimates for future rate cuts continue to decline in the US with only one cut now expected in 2026, in Europe the expectation is now for nearly two rate hikes as expectations have reversed completely from late February.On the bond auction front Ireland is issuing €1.25bn in the 3.1% 2036’s, Italy have three bonds on the block (2038s, 2033s and 2029s), whilst the UK sells 2049 linkers, and the US is selling 22bn of its 30-year 2056s.

Commodities: Oil was up 4.5% yesterday, and this morning is up nearly 4.5% to $96 for Brent Crude, after an attack on tankers in Iraq. Gold continues its sideways moves down 0.14% this morning after yesterday’s -0.3% fall.