Research Archive

Market Round Up: Global equity markets gained ground yesterday after bullish AI spending comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whilst President Trump’s rhetoric on Greenland, and ruling out additional tariffs on European nations was also appreciated by investors. The Eurostoxx 600 gained 1.0% whilst the S&P500 gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.9%. After the closing bell, Intel, whose stock has increased 47.2% YTD, released muted Q4 results, and in particular a lacklustre outlook driven by continued manufacturing issues, as the demand for memory semiconductors remains strong. The stock dropped by 14% in the pre-market. Macro data in the US was also supportive of an equity rally with Q3 GDP showing growth of 4.4% (Est 4.3%) whilst core inflation for the same period remained unchanged at 2.9%. US personal spending and income rose by 0.5% (Est, 0.5%) and 0.3% (Est, 0.3%) respectively. In Asian markets this morning, Japan is up 0.4% with the BOJ leaving the target interest rate at 0.75% but increased the economic growth outlook to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. Hong Kong is up 0.5% whilst China is weaker, down 0.5%.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: There are several macro datapoints to look out for as we close out the week. We have January Manufacturing PMI data (preliminary) for the Eurozone (est. 49.2), UK (Est. 50.6) and US (Est. 52.0). We also have the University of Michigan Sentiment index update later, estimated to be 54.0

Stocks in focus: Paypal: (Overweight, PT $86, 50% upside) – Acquisition of Cymbio, an agentic AI ecommerce tech company. Nestle: (Overweight PT CHF87.76, +20% Upside) – Sales process of Water division.

Bonds: In bond markets the BOJ said it will work with the Japanese government to control yields, acknowledging it may trim the issuance at the long end of the yield curve. The 30-year yield dropped 3bps over the day. The 10-year German yield rose by 1bp yesterday whilst the US 10 year was flat at 4.24%. From an auction perspective it is a relatively light day, with the highlight being £4.5bn worth of short-dated bills issued in the UK at 11:00am. From central bank speakers we will have the Bank of England’s Megan Greene whilst ECB President Lagarde will speak on a panel discussion at Davos

Commodities: In the commodities space the gold rally has shown no sign of slowing down, despite easing geopolitical tensions, rising 2.2% (approaching $5000 an ounce) taking its weekly gain to 7.2%, and is up 0.2% so far today, off the back of dollar weakness. Silver also gained, up 3.5% yesterday, continuing to benefit from strong retail buying. So far today it is up 2.5% as investors look to diversify their precious metal exposure. WTI is up 0.9% this morning, after it declined 2.1% yesterday as Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that the US, Ukraine and Russia would meet in the coming days to continue to work on a peace plan in relation to the war.