- Equity Markets: Equity markets were negative yesterday as investors exercised caution ahead of today’s Fed rate decision. The S&P500 finished down -0.13%, and the Nasdaq fell -0.07%, Europe was down -1.14%. In the US, five of eleven sectors were in positive territory and 37% of stocks ended higher. Energy (+1.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.82%) were the best performers. Utilities (-1.81%) and Real Estate (-0.66%) were weakest. Warner Bros Discovery dropped (-6.22%) after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to hold on doubts their speculated merger with Paramount Skydance (-5.65%) will materialise. In Europe, Energy (+0.20%) was the lone positive sector while Financials (-1.94%) and Industrials (-1.34%) led losses. Puma (+2.86%) rose on speculation it may be a target for Adidas.
- Macro: In Europe, investor confidence in Germany’s economic outlook increased unexpectedly in September. The ZEW Survey rose to 37.3 from 34.7, contrary to an expected continued decline to 25, supporting hopes that the economy is leaving behind a prolonged downturn. Analysts expect Germany to gain momentum in coming quarters thanks to higher government spending and lower interest rates, however there are still concerns that the full impact of U.S. tariffs may not yet be realised. UK CPI was released this morning and was in line with estimates, +3.8% y/y (+0.3% m/m).In the US, an appeals court blocked President Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, while the Senate confirmed Stephan Miran as governor. The White House is expected to bring the case against Cook to the Supreme Court. Both Cook and Miran will vote at the Fed’s meeting today where a 25bps cut is expected. In economic releases, US retail sales rose +0.6% in August, higher than the +0.2% expected, reinforcing consumer resilience but potentially complicating the case for multiple rate cuts through the end of the year if central bankers believe inflation is still a risk. Separately, the SEC confirmed it is fast-tracking Trump’s proposal to move earnings reporting to a six-month cycle, a move that could reduce market transparency.Economic releases today include MBA Mortgage Applications and the FOMC rate decision. In Europe we have Eurozone CPI, and Irish Property Prices.
- Stocks: Nestle: (Overweight PT CHF86.67 Upside 21%) Nestle announced that its long-standing chairman Paul Bulcke, will step down following the recent firing of its CEO. He is being replaced by former Inditex chairman Pablo Isla. Supermarket Income REIT: (Overweight PT 90p Upside 14.5%) SUPR reported a solid set of FY earnings following a year of strategic corporate changes and portfolio enhancements.
- Debt: Bond yields were little changed ahead of the Fed’s FOMC rate decision announcement, when a 25bps cut is expected by the market.