Research Archive

Market Round Up: Global equity markets trended higher yesterday buoyed by a rebound in the technology sector. Within the US, a 1.0% move in the Mag-7 contributed to a 0.6% rise in the S&P 500 and a 0.8% rally in the Nasdaq 100. Sentiment was supported by a combination of resilient tech earnings and strong demand for OpenAI’s latest funding round which is set to value the company at $850bn above the $830bn previously expected. Closer to home a strong rally from large cap software names such SAP +2.2% and Semi-Capex players such as ASML +3.5% made a strong contribution to the Eurostoxx 50’s +1.35% rise on the day.

Last night, CRH reported inline earnings, however slightly weaker sales and lower net income guidance saw the stock down 2.5% in overnight trading. In contrast, eBay rallied 5.9% after it reported strong quarterly numbers along with announcing the purchase of second-hand marketplace Depop from Etsy for $1.2bn. On the macro front, Irish Property Prices rose 7.0% YoY for December, which was a modest step up from the prior month. US industrial production for January came in well ahead of market expectations at 0.7%.

Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian markets took the lead from its US and European counterparts this morning with equities trending higher across the region, driven by the tech rally. Equities in Seoul were up over 3.0% driven by tech, in particular Samsung, which rose over 4%, following reports that it negotiated price on its next gen AI chip, HBM4, which is 30% higher than what it achieved for the previous generation. In Japan, equities moved 0.57% higher as investors brushed aside concerns surrounding, what was weaker than expected demand in its 20-year bond auction. Chinese markets remain closed for the lunar New Year holiday, however the IMF released a reporting criticising the country’s industrial policy that whilst enabling tech innovation in some sectors, has overall resulted in resource misallocation, overspending and had a negative impact on the economy, which is unlikely to be received well in Beijing. On the macro front today, today at 11.00 markets will also get the release of Irish inflation data for January, with hopes for some deceleration from the 2.8% YoY pace of growth seen in the prior month. At 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims will be in focus in the US with 225K expected, which is broadly in line with the recent trend. Eurozone data at 15.00 should indicate that confidence levels among the blocks consumers has risen back to the highest levels since October 2024 this month, which should in turn be positive for spending. US Pending Home Sales for January are also out at 15.00 with growth of 2.3% expected in January, representing a sharp rebound from a weak January print. Investors will also watch for headlines from President Trump’s Board of Peace inaugural meeting which will be held today.

Stocks in focus: CRH (Overweight PT 10280p 12% upside) – Q4 results commentary. Rio Tinto (Neutral PT 6120p 16% downside) – FY results and guidance commentary. Nestle (Overweight CHF90, +14.8% Upside) – PT increase from CHF87.76 to CHF90 after stable FY25 results. IRES (Overweight PT €1.32, +22% Upside) – Revised PT from €1.26 to $1.32 after solid FY25 results.

Bonds: Yields are a slightly higher this morning mainly driven by US Treasuries after what were deemed relatively hawkish minutes from the Fed’s FOMC, with several members speaking to the potential of hikes if inflation remains above target. Market pricing of interest rate expectations in the US however remains largely unchanged, with the Fed still expected to cut twice this year. Both France and Spain will come to market later this morning with fresh issuance of mainly short duration debt.

Commodities: Oil steadied this morning after a strong rally in Brent yesterday (+4.35%) on reports that the US military is positioned within striking distance of Iran, amid ongoing talks in Switzerland between the two countries on the latter’s nuclear programme. The increased geopolitical tensions also saw gold pass back above the $5,000 level overnight