• Market Round Up:  Global equity markets had a relatively quiet day yesterday, with the S&P500 -0.28%, the Nasdaq -0.31% and Europe Stoxx 600 -0.53%, as Iran-US geopolitical concerns impacted the market after President Trump said Iran had 15 days at most to reach a deal over its nuclear program.  On the macro side, Ireland’s finalised CPI for Jan was revised down to 2.5% YoY. The US trade balance widened to $70bn from $53bn as imports rose 3.6%, and exports fell -1.7%. On the US jobs front, Initial Claims slipped to 206k from 229k but Continuing Claims remained high at 1,869k. Pending Home sales fell -1.2% YoY versus +2.3% estimates.   Gold miner, Newmont reported good results after market, driven by gold prices, but the stock fell after the company said production would decline 10% in 2026. AppLovin rose 6% in the aftermarket on reports that the mobile advertising powerhouse is laying the groundwork to build its own social networking platform, after failing to acquire TikTok’s ex-China business.
• Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: China remains closed for Lunar New Year’s holiday, but Hong Kong (-1.0%) and Tokyo (-1.1%) are both weak this morning following the US’s lead.    Today on the macro front the market will be focused on the UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing which recorded a £30bn surplus (largest on record), and UK Retail Sales that rose more than expected at 5.5% YoY (3.6% est, 2.5% previous). Later today, we get a raft of PMI data out of Europe and the US, where Composite data is expected to be generally slightly better in the Eurozone, flat in the US and down in the UK. From the US, we also get the PCE Price index for December (+2.9% YoY est.), Real Personal Spending, and initial GDP readings for Q4 (+3.7% est). Finally, New Homes Sales are expected to be 730K for December, flat on the prior month
• Stocks in focus: IRES (Overweight PT €1.32, +22% upside) - In person meeting with CEO and CFO post FY25 results. Kingspan Group (Overweight PT €91 +14.2% upside) - Update post solid FY25 results
• Bonds: Yesterday, US bond yields fell 2bps, but most Eurozone government bonds were largely unchanged. For the bond markets, the key data today will be the US Core PCE Price and GDP data.Bond issuance is light today with only the UK issuing 28, 92 and 182 day bills today.The Feed’s Bostic, who is seen as a slightly hawkish, is speaking later today. Musalem and Logan will also be speaking.
• Commodities: After a strong (+1.8%) day yesterday, oil prices continue to rise this morning with WTI up 0.9%. Gold and silver are also up 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, as geopolitics remains the main driver.  

Opportunities this week:

• There are a number of supportive catalysts for IRES REIT in the year ahead, including yield stabilisation, potential for favourable policy changes, further progress on its strategic asset recycling programme, and lower turnover of its major shareholders. BUY PT: €1.19.
• Given the potential for M&A in 2025, retailer shelf resets driving topline growth, and the company’s CMD planned for H1, we reiterate our BUY rating on Glanbia with a slightly reduced PT of €19.80.
• With one of the highest return portfolios within its’ peer group and a wide range of growth opportunities we are upgrading TotalEnergies to a BUY with a slightly increased PT of €68.