• Market Round Up:  Global equity markets were mixed yesterday, having initially rallied strongly off the back of solid ASML earnings, fuelling AI and tech sectors, before pulling back ahead of the FOMC interest rate call. The S&P500 was flat, the Nasdaq +0.2% whilst the Eurostoxx600 fell -0.8%. After the market closed Meta, Microsoft and Tesla released their quarterly results. Improved Ad revenue and outlook spurred Meta stock higher (+6% pre-mkt) despite increasing AI Capex. Microsoft (-6% pre-mkt) noted slower Cloud growth and increased spending pushing its stock lower. Tesla’s (+2% pre-mkt) results showed earnings beat but also confirmed a $20bn AI Capex spend. The Federal Reserve unsurprisingly kept interest rates unchanged with the upper and lower bounds between 3.75% - 3.50% with members acknowledging a stabilisation in the labour market. Looking ahead, traders have priced in a modest 14% probability of an interest rate cut on the 18th of March. German GfK consumer confidence came in better than expected at -24.1. In Asian markets this morning Japan is up 0.3%, Hong Kong is also up 0.4% whilst Mainland China is 0.8% higher. Chinese property stocks led the gains, some rising up to 11% after it was confirmed that developers are no longer required to submit a key set of regulatory metrics (three red lines) which were designed to manage company debt levels
• Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Looking forward to today, Initial Jobless Claims in the US, for the week ended the 24th January will be published. Survey estimates suggest a rise to 205k. November Factory Orders will also be updated, with estimates of 1.6% growth. At home, Q4 and YoY preliminary GDP will also be published.On the earnings side today, starting in Europe Lloyds Banking Group (FY25) Nordea Bank (FY25) and Deutsche Bank (FY25) will lead financials earnings whilst Roche (FY25) will be a key name in the healthcare space. Germany’s SAP AG (-5.2%) this morning issued results that missed estimates for Cloud backlog.  Additional names to look out for include Givaudan, a key peer to Kerry Group (0.38 correlation) and STMicroelectronics, a competitor to Infineon (0.69 correlation), both of which will release their FY25 results.   Switching to the US, big names today include Apple (Q1 26), Visa (Q1, 26) Caterpillar (FY25), Lockheed Martin (FY25) and Blackstone (FY25).
• Stocks in focus: Greencoat Renewables (PT €0.99, 42% upside) - Q4 NAV per share update and PT changed from €1.015
• Bonds: In bond markets yesterday the German 10-year dropped by 2bps to 2.86% after improved consumer outlook. The US the 10-year yield was flat at 4.24% as traders had largely priced in no rate cut at the FOMC meeting. The vote ended 10-2 in favour of current bounds with Waller and Miran the only two in support of a 25bps cut.  From an auction perspective it’s a relatively thin day, the highlight being a $44bn sale of 7-year notes. There is also a $80bn 4-week and $69bn 8-week auction.   Central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Cipollone.
• Commodities: In the commodities space gold continued its impressive rally, up 4.6% yesterday to $5,417. This morning the precious metal moved higher again, up 2.8% as the dollar continues to show weakness and investors move out of sovereign bonds. Gold is now up 28% YTD. Silver also climbed to new record highs yesterday, up 4.1% and up 2.4% this morning taking it up 69% YTD. WTI Crude gained 1.5% yesterday to $63.21 and is subsequently up 1.1% this morning as President Trumps threats of military strikes against

Opportunities this week:

•  In what was a solid set of results for H1’25, Diageo reported a net sales decline of -1% to £10.9bn, which was 2% ahead of market expectations and this was generated on the back of organic revenue growth of 1%, ahead of expectations for -1.7%. HOLD PT: £25.10
• We came away from our post-results meeting with Ryanair last week with increased confidence on the airline’s prospects during the year ahead. Following this, we have updated our model, resulting in an increase to our DCF derived price target to €23.30
• Amidst growing concerns regarding Trump initiated trade wars, we continue to rate Rio Tinto as a Buy with PT £60.75 and 26% upside.