• Market Round Up: Wall Street logged its largest equity rally since May, as investors bet that both the U.S. and Iran may be exploring de-escalation. The S&P 500 gained 2.9%, the Nasdaq rose 3.8%, while the Euro Stoxx 600 advanced 0.4%.Airlines rallied and energy stocks lagged. The dollar weakened, while gold advanced. De-escalation hopes strengthened after Trump said hostilities could end within two to three weeks, with the White House confirming he will address the nation on Wednesday evening. Trump did not deny reports suggesting openness to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran also signalled willingness to end the conflict, citing ongoing contacts with U.S. envoy Witkoff. Nvidia (+5.6%) will take a $2bn stake in Marvell Technology, opening its platform to support Marvell’s custom AI chips and networking hardware. Eli Lilly (+3.7%) agreed to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8bn, expanding its pipeline beyond weight-loss treatments. CoreWeave secured $8.5bn in funding to accelerate its cloud-computing expansion. Unilever shares fell as much as 7.3%, hitting its lowest level since April 2024, after confirming a $44.8bn deal to combine its food business with McCormick. In the U.S., the FHFA house price index rose 0.1% m/m in January, in line with expectations. The MNI Chicago Barometer eased to 52.8 in March, below forecasts. Consumer confidence rose unexpectedly, supported by modestly improved views of business and labour market conditions. Meanwhile, job openings fell and hiring slowed in February, pointing to easing labour demand ahead of the conflict.In Europe, headline inflation accelerated to 2.5% y/y in March, driven by energy prices, while core inflation eased to 2.3%, below consensus, as services inflation slowed to 3.2%, extending its downward trend.
• Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Asian equities are sharply higher, led by Japan +4.8%, with Hong Kong up 2.3% and China higher by 1.4%, driven by a broad risk-on move following Wall Street’s rebound, lower oil prices, and de-escalation hopes around Iran. On the macro calendar, France, Germany, the UK and the Eurozone PMI releases are due, alongside U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment, and ISM manufacturing data
• Stocks in focus: L’Oreal (Overweight PT €410 +17.3% Upside) - Completion of Kering Beauty deal, moving from Neutral to Overweight after recent share price decline. Grafton Group (Overweight PT £12.05 +34% Upside) - Completion of Cygnum Holdings deal.
• Bonds: Global bond yields eased, with the U.S. 10-year down 3bp to 4.32%, Germany’s 10-year down 3bp to 3.00%, and the UK 10-year lower by 2bp to 4.92%, driven by calmer geopolitics. From the Central banks, we have Cipollone, Villeroy and Radev from the ECB, and Musalem, Barr, Logan, Bowman and Goolsbee speaking today
• Commodities: Oil prices edged lower, with WTI down 3.1% to $100.7/bl, as easing geopolitical risks triggered a retracement of the recent rally. By contrast, spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,732/oz, supported by lower yields and lingering safe-haven demand.

Opportunities this week:

•  In what was a solid set of results for H1’25, Diageo reported a net sales decline of -1% to £10.9bn, which was 2% ahead of market expectations and this was generated on the back of organic revenue growth of 1%, ahead of expectations for -1.7%. HOLD PT: £25.10
• We came away from our post-results meeting with Ryanair last week with increased confidence on the airline’s prospects during the year ahead. Following this, we have updated our model, resulting in an increase to our DCF derived price target to €23.30
• Amidst growing concerns regarding Trump initiated trade wars, we continue to rate Rio Tinto as a Buy with PT £60.75 and 26% upside.