• Market Round Up:  Global equities moved higher yesterday despite concerns around AI, however the software and service sector continued to struggle (-1.6%). The S&P500 climbed 0.1%, the Nasdaq also increased by 0.1% whilst the Eurostoxx600 increased by 0.5%. In the US, Warner Bros agreed to reopen negotiations with Paramount after Paramount proposed raising its bid for the company. Over the course of the day Warner Bros. stock jumped 2.3%. In Europe, the healthcare and agri-giant Bayer (+7.6%) announced that it would pay $10.5bn in settlements to help resolve cancer lawsuits over its “Roundup” weedkiller.   On the macro side, the UK 3-month unemployment rate to the end of December hit 5.2%, its highest level in nearly five years with 16–24-year-old unemployment at 16.1%, it's highest in a decade. Jobless claims for January increased from 17.9k to 28.6k. In Germany, the ZEW Current Situation came in at -65.9 (Est. -65.9) however the Expectation was weak at 58.3 (Est. 65.2).  
• Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: In Asia, the broader equity market moved higher overnight, however markets in China and Hong Kong remain closed for the Lunar New Year On the macro side today, we have just had the release of UK CPI for January, coming in at 3.0% YoY (Est. 3.0%, prior 3.4%), its lowest level since March 2025 and -0.5% MoM (Est. -0.5%). Looking over to the US, the focus today will be on December Durable Goods Orders (Est. -2.0%) and MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended 13th February. Industrial Production for the month of January will also be updated (Est. 0.4%). It is also worth keeping an eye on the release of January FOMC Minutes later today. Looking at earnings today, from our coverage CRH will report after the market. In the US, Booking.com, eBay, Analog Devices and Occidental Petroleum will all report today. In Europe big names to look out for today include Glencore Plc and BAE Systems.
• Stocks in focus: CRH (Overweight, PT 10280p c. 14% upside) -read across from Vulcan Materials 2026 guidance.Bank of Ireland (Overweight PT €17.80 c. 11% upside) - Bank announces withdrawal from US leveraged acquisition finance
• Bonds: In bond markets yesterday, buying activity continued across the German Bund yield curve with the 10-year dropping by 1.7bps to 2.73% whilst the 30-year fell by 2.8bps to 3.4%. Weak jobs data in the UK led to a rally in Gilts with the 10-year falling 4bps to 4.36%. On the auction side today its worth highlighting that Germany will sell €5.5bn of 2036 notes at a 2.9% coupon. The US will sell $69bn worth of 17-week bills this afternoon. Central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Villeroy, Schnabel and Cipollone, whilst from the Fed we will have comments from Bowman.
• Commodities: On the commodities side, gold rebounded this morning, up 1.1% having declined 2.3% yesterday. Dip buyers invested in the precious metal after a two-day dip as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Silver is up 2.8% this morning having fallen 4.8% yesterday. In energy markets, WTI futures are up 0.4% this morning to $62.54.

Opportunities this week:

• Beyond the recent announcement of its second-quarter 2025 financial results, TotalEnergies has been active with several strategic initiatives across its operations, we retain our Overweight recommendation with a PT of €62. (c. 20% upside)
• Last week, there were a number of unrelated news items regarding Rio Tinto, we continue to rate the stock Overweight with a PT of 5590p.
• Following a mixed H1 trading statement from Nestle, we are upgrading our recommendation on Nestle from Neutral to Overweight with a revised PT of CHF87.76 from CHF86.00. (c.19.5% upside)