- Market Round Up: US Stocks ended yesterday’s session at their highs, returning to positive territory for 2026 after Trump said Iran remained open to a deal despite stalled peace talks and a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 rose 1.0%, the Nasdaq gained 1.2%, and Euro Stoxx 600 fell -0.2%. Geopolitical risks remain heightened, however, as the US imposed a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz despite stalled peace negotiations, leaving markets highly reactive to headlines. Investors are now turning their attention to corporate earnings for insight into the impact of the Iran conflict, artificial intelligence disruption and risks in private credit markets, with analysts forecasting roughly 12% year-on-year S&P 500 earnings growth for the first quarter. Strategists remain cautious, warning that sustained equity gains may be difficult without a lasting geopolitical resolution, even as solid earnings provide near-term support. In corporate news, earnings season got off to an underwhelming start as Goldman Sachs shares fell 1.9% due to weaker-than-expected fixed-income, currency, and commodities revenue, which offset a record sale in equities. In macro news, US Existing home sales declined by 3.6% in March, slipping to an annualised rate of 3.98 million homes, the lowest level in nine months
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Equities: Asian equities are higher this morning, with China up 0.7%, Hong Kong up 0.3% and Japan up 0.7%. Tech majors outperformed across Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Risk sentiment rebounded on reports of renewed US–Iran diplomatic engagement ahead of the two-week ceasefire expiry. Sources say the US and Iran are in discussions to hold a second round of direct talks before the current ceasefire expires, potentially in Islamabad again or an alternative venue, with mediators working to narrow gaps between US and Iranian demands. On today’s U.S. macro calendar, NFIB Small Business Optimism is expected to ease to 98 from 98.8, while March PPI data are anticipated to show an increase as the impact of the Iranian conflict begins to filter through. On the earnings front, today’s focus will be on JPMorgan Chase & Co (Q1 2026 Earnings), Johnson & Johnson (Q1 2026 Earnings), Wells Fargo & Co (Q1 2026 Earnings), Citigroup Inc (Q1 2026 Earnings), TotalEnergies SE (Q1 2026 Sales), Blackrock Inc (Q1 2026 Earnings), Imperial Brands PLC (Q2 2026 Sales).
- Stocks in focus: LVMH (Overweight PT €625 +29.7% Upside) – Reduction in PT after mixed Q1 results.
- Bonds: Yesterday, U.S. 10-year yields slipped two basis points to 4.29%, while 10-year yields in Germany and Britain each rose three basis points, to 3.09% and 4.87%, respectively. Bonds are seeing a modest relief this morning, with Treasuries one basis point lower and most of Asia ex-Japan firmer, as markets price in easing geopolitical risks and softer oil, while JGBs stabilise after recent volatility. Today’s central bank speakers include Mann, Greene, and Bailey (BoE), Rehn, Makhlouf, Lane, and Lagarde (ECB), and Goolsbee and Barr (Fed).
- Commodities: This morning, oil is extending its pullback with Brent trading at $98.45 per barrel, while gold recovered from earlier lows trading at $4788 an ounce.
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