- Market Round Up: Global equities rallied after the US-Iran ceasefire boosted risk sentiment, with the sharpest oil price drop (-13%) in nearly six years, supporting stocks. The S&P 500 rose 2.5%, Nasdaq gained 2.8%, and Euro Stoxx 600 advanced 3.6%. Airline stocks led gains whilst the VIX fell back to pre-war levels and the dollar softened.This morning, sentiment has turned more cautious as Middle East tensions persist. Israel’s largest strike on Lebanon has raised doubts over the durability of the ceasefire, with Iran again threatening to re-close the Strait of Hormuz. Whether Lebanon is included in the truce remains a key point of contention.The White House said Vice President JD Vance will lead a US delegation to Pakistan later this week for talks aimed at securing a lasting peace agreement with Iran. In corporate news Delta Air Lines (+2.8%) warned the conflict will add over $2bn in fuel costs through June but maintained full-year guidance. Exxon Mobil (-5.5%) said the war curtailed 6% of global output in Q1 due to Persian Gulf disruptions. Meta Platforms jumped (+6.5%) after launching a new AI model. In macro news, MBA mortgage applications fell 0.8% after a sharp prior-week decline. Fed minutes showed that officials are concerned that a prolonged conflict could weigh on the labour market, while also highlighting upside inflation risks. In Europe, UK Construction PMI edged up to 45.6 in March. Euro area industrial production fell 0.3% m/m in February, weaker than expected.
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers – Equities: Asian equities are lower this morning, with China down 0.7%, Hong Kong off 0.4% and Japan down 0.9%, in reaction to the unstable ceasefire in Iran. In today’s macro calendar, Ireland’s CPI is released at 11:00, followed by a heavy US data slate at 13:30 including personal income, PCE price index, initial jobless claims and Q4 GDP. February US personal income and spending data, including the Fed preferred PCE inflation measure, will be closely watched for signals on the inflation outlook and policy direction.
- Stocks in focus: FedEx (Overweight PT $420 c. 14% upside) – FedEx Freight investor day and PT change
- Bonds: Yesterday, European bond markets rallied, with Germany’s 10-year yield down 14bp to 2.94% and the UK 10-year falling 19bp to 4.71%. The US 10-year was little changed at 4.29%. This morning, yields are higher across US Treasuries and Asian sovereigns. Markets remain cautious, with focus on elevated oil prices and inflation risks, while central-bank rate expectations continue to be repriced. We will also hear from the ECB’s Sleijpen today.
- Commodities:Following yesterday’s sharp sell-off, oil is rebounding this morning, up 2.4% at $97/barrel, while gold is 0.7% lower at $4,742/ounce.
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