- Market Round Up: The UK’s Bank of England held rates steady with a vote 7-2 and set a hawkish tone in its communication after the decision. The ECB also held rates steady, and raised its inflation estimates for all years out to 2028 with Nagel stating that rates may rise in April if inflation is pushed higher by the Iran conflict. US Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims data painted a mixed picture with continuing claims rising slightly and initial claims down marginally and below estimates. But it is the Iran conflict that continues to drive broader sentiment as the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 0.27% and 0.28% respectively, with Energy stocks the strongest. The market recovered towards the end of the day, as President Trump and Netanyahu sought to reassure that attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure would be avoided. Europe was weaker by 2.4%, as interest rates and energy cost fears impacted most. FedEx reported strong earnings and raised guidance, climbing c. 9% in the aftermarket. Accenture had a volatile day but closed up 4.6% as it confirmed that it sees bookings from its largest AI partners doubling in FY26, which reassured investors.
- Day Ahead and Market Drivers: Japan is closed today and broader Asia is weaker with China down 0.11% and Hong Kong -1.0%, Tech heavy Korea is the only bright spot up 0.3%. In the equity market, there are no major companies reporting today.
- Stocks in focus: FedEx (Overweight PT $395 +10% Upside) – Q3 2026 results comment and PT increase
- Bonds: In the bond markets, the UK was weakest as yields rose 11bps following the BOE’s hawkish comments and implied rate moves increased to nearly three moves in 2026 up c. 2x. European bonds were slightly weaker at the long end, but shorter dated bonds were much weaker with the UK up 30bps and Germany up 14bps for 2 year maturities, following ECB and BoE comments about inflation. There are no longer dated bonds on auction today, just short-dated UK bills.
- Commodities: Energy markets continue to be volatile with Brent crude ending up only 1.2% yesterday after spiking to $119 but is down 0.35% this morning. European gas prices are back below €60/MWh after jumping to over €70 yesterday. Gold spot prices are up 0.65% this morning after declining 3.5% yesterday. For the week, oil is up c. 5%, TTF gas prices up 18.5%, and gold is down 6.8%
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