- Equity Markets: Equity markets were weaker yesterday with the S&P500 -1.12% and the Nasdaq -1.90%, as markets reacted to weaker job cuts data and concerns about high AI related valuations. Europe was -0.70%. In the US, only two sectors were in positive territory and 67% of stocks ended lower. Energy and Healthcare were best. Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology were weakest. The Mag 7 fell -2.02%, with Nvidia down -3.6%, and AMD down -7.3%. On the positive side Datadog rose +23% on a revenue beat and strong guidance. Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk’s $1tr potential pay package. In Europe, three of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with Real Estate and Healthcare best, while Information Technology and Industrials were worst. SAP fell -4.4% and Legrand -12.2% as the electrical device maker’s datacentre growth peaks out, whilst Deutsche Post increased +8.6% as cost savings drove an earnings beat.
- Macro: In macro news yesterday, the Bank of England kept rates at 4% as expected in a 6-3 vote. German and UK Construction PMIs were weaker than expected for October. The Eurozone’s September Retail sales were in line with estimates at +1% YoY. This morning the German September Trade Balance declined to €15.3bn, below estimates, due to higher-than-expected imports. In the US, the Challenger Job Cuts data for October showed a big increase to +175.3% from -25.8%, the highest October results since the 2003 Dotcom burst. This contrasts with the previous day’s more positive ADP Employment change.Economic releases today in Europe include French Trade Balance (Sep), French Wages (3Q P), Ireland’s Live Register (Oct). Then in the US we (potentially) get Nonfarm Payrolls data (Oct), Unemployment Rate (Oct), Average Hourly Earnings (Oct), University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Nov P), the NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (Oct), and finally Consumer Credit (Sep).
- Stocks:Flutter: (Overweight PT $293, c.35% Upside): Commentary relating to DraftKings quarterly results, a main US competitor of Flutter. Novo Nordisk: (Overweight. DKK474 c.57% Upside): Details relating to agreement with US government on sales of GLP-1 medicines.
- Debt: A combination of weak US labour market data (Challenger survey, Revelio Labs) and a dovish hold from the BOE drove yields 2/3 basis points lower yesterday.