- Equity Markets: Equity markets had a weak start to the day yesterday but recovered early on to end with the S&P500 -0.16% and the Nasdaq -0.76%, as Powell set a more dovish tone at the start of the day, followed by President Trump threatening sanctions of cooking oil for China. Europe lagged slightly at -0.37%. In the US, eight sectors were in positive territory and 77% of stocks ended higher. Consumer Staples and Industrials were best. IT and Consumer Discretionary were weakest. Large IT names such as Nvidia (-4.4%), Broadcom (-3.5%) and Oracle (-2.9%) were particularly weak. In Europe, six of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with Real Estate and Utilities best, and Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare worst. Ericsson rose +18% beating Q3 estimates and guided to higher than estimated gross margins in Q4 and EasyJet spiked +11% before closing +8% on reports a Mediterranean Shipping Company is considering making an offer for the airline.
- Macro: In macro news yesterday, in Europe, the ZEW Survey results for October, showed expectations rose to 39.3 from 37.3, but were lower than the 41.1 expected, views on the current situation in Germany also deteriorated to -80. In the US, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index deteriorated to 98.8 from 100.8 and was below the 100.6 expected. From the ECB we had Lagarde, who said that risk to the inflation outlook and the economic outlook are “balanced” and that the ECB is in a good place and well positioned to respond to potential shocks. The Fed Chair Powell pointed to “pretty significant downside risks” for the labour market, with goods price increases primarily reflecting tariffs not broad inflationary pressure.Economic releases today include French CPI, EU Industrial Production, Irish Property Prices, and from the US MBA Mortgage Applications, Average Weekly Earnings and Empire Manufacturing are all released. From the Central Bankers, today’s speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy, Rehn, and Guindos, from the Fed we will hear from Miran, Waller and Schmid. Finally, from the BOE Breeden and Ramsden will be speaking. The Fed’s Beige Book will also be released.
- Stocks:GSK (Neutral PT 1660p 1.4% upside):.GSK announced the approval of its shingles vaccine in China, We downgrade it to Neutral (from Overweight) and remove from the Analyst Conviction List.Novo Nordisk: (Overweight PT DKK489: 35.6% upside): Announcement of co-partnership agreement with Sumitomo Pharma. We add it to the Analyst Conviction List.Apple Inc: (Neutral PT $225: 9.2% downside): Robust demand for iPhone 17 based on third part research firm IDC.LVMH: (Overweight PT€630: 18.4% upside): LVMH released a solid set of Q3 results yesterday. Details in note.
- Debt:We’ve seen a decent rally in bond markets over past fortnight with Bunds at 2.60% now having been stuck at 2.75% for weeks and 10-year US Treasuries coming close to yield lows of 2025 at 4%
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