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Daily Note 16/09/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

16.09.2025



  • Equity: Equity markets had a positive day yesterday hitting new highs with the S&P500 +0.47% and the Nasdaq +0.93%, as traders positioned ahead of the expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Europe lagged but still rose +0.42%. In the US, despite the headline strength only five of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with only 39% of stocks ended higher. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary were best. Consumer Staples and Healthcare were weakest. Alphabet rose 4.4% following news that its AI Gemini app became the top AI app in Apple App Store downloads. In Europe, seven of eleven sectors were in positive territory, with IT and Consumer Discretionary best, whilst Healthcare and Consumer Staples worst. Semiconductor stocks e.g. ASML and ASM International, led the way on average up 5%
  • Macro: Economic releases today in Europe include the German ZEW Survey (Sep), EU Labour Costs (2Q) and EU Industrial Production (Jul). In the US we get Retail Sales (Aug), New York Fed Services Business Activity (Sep), Import/Export Prices (Aug), Industrial Production (Aug), Capacity Utilization (Aug), Business Inventories (Jul), and NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep).
  • Stocks: PayPal: (Overweight PT $97 Upside 45%): Launch of a new service PayPal Links
  • Debt: Despite the Fitch downgrade of France,10-year OAT-Bund spreads were pretty stable on the day, and other markets tightened to Bunds following the upgrades of Spain and Portugal