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Daily Note 10/09/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

10.09.2025



  • Macro: Equity markets were positive yesterday, as stocks climbed to record levels amid optimism that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to counter a slowdown in the labour market. The S&P500 was up +0.27%, the Nasdaq +0.33%. Europe was up +0.03%. In the US, eight of eleven sectors were positive and 40% of stocks ended higher. Communication Services (+1.64%) and Utilities (+0.71%) were the best performers, while Materials (-1.57%) and Industrials (-0.65%) were the weakest. Apple’s stock slipped (-1.5%) after the company introduced its newest iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods models. Oracle jumped more than 30% in after-hours trading after an update showed a sharp increase in bookings for its cloud infrastructure division. In Europe, five of the eleven sectors were in positive territory, and 47% of stocks ended higher. Energy (+1.18%) and Communication Services (+0.81%) were best, with Consumer Staples (-0.64%) and Industrials (-0.50%) worst. In macro news yesterday, France’s industrial production fell less than economists expected in July at -1.1% (-1.4% est.). In the US, NFIB Small Business Optimism exceeded expectations, rising to 100.8 (100.5 est.) as confidence among U.S. small businesses ticked up in August, driven by the strongest sales outlook in six months. Job gains in the U.S. were much weaker in the year through March than earlier estimates suggested. The government’s preliminary benchmark revision, released yesterday, indicates payrolls will likely be reduced by a record -911k workers (-682k est.). In macro news today, we have US MBA mortgage applications and Wholesale inventories
  • Stocks: L’Oreal: (Neutral PT €415 Upside 4.7%). Strong YTD rally in share price has resulted in limited upside to the current target price. Datalex: (De-listing) EGM approved delisting, ahead of 11th September, which is its last day on the Euronext Dublin. Apple: (Neutral PT $225). Details around the launch of their new models. DCC: (Overweight PT 7070p upside 44%): DCC announced the completion of the sale of the company’s healthcare division. Kenmare Resources: Meeting with CEO to discuss recent business activity.
  • Debt: Yields finished the day a couple of basis points higher in Europe as accounts took down a lot of supply on the day. The greater-than-forecast downward revisions to payrolls (-911k) in the year to March were more or less ignored as the market was well-prepared for a significant negative adjustment.