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Daily Note 27/08/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

27.08.2025



  • Macro Equities had a mixed day yesterday. The S&P500 was up 0.41% and the Nasdaq 0.44%, as investors focused on the potential benefits from interest rate cuts and continued AI momentum. Europe was down 0.83% with the French equities leading the decline (CAC -1.7%) amidst ongoing political turmoil. In the US, seven sectors were in positive territory and 51% of stocks ended higher. Industrials (+1.03%) and Financials (+0.76%) were best, while Real Estate (-0.32%) and Consumer Staples (-0.46%) were weakest. The defence sector finished up 2.1% on news the US administration is looking at taking stakes in the industry. In Europe, all sectors were negative with Information Technology closest to par down 0.16%. Financials (-1.55%) and Consumer Staples (-1.00%) were worst. Banks were among the hardest hit due to France’s political instability, with BNP Paribas -4.2% and SocGen -6.8%. In macro news yesterday, France’s three main opposition parties have vowed to vote against the upcoming motion of confidence in the French government, it is expected to subsequently resign. This leaves President Macron with few viable options, such as appointing a new prime minister, reappointing Bayrou or dissolving parliament. Prolonged French instability could undermine wider European policy and reforms. In the US, President Trump said he was prepared for a legal fight to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations that she falsified mortgage documents. The Fed said it would abide by any court decision in Cook’s legal challenge of her dismissal. In macro news today releases include US MBA Mortgage Applications at 12:00. Nvidia earnings release is post the US market close. From the Central Bankers, we will hear from the Fed’s Barkin.
  • Stocks: Ryanair: (Overweight: PT €29.50, Upside 11.4%). Details of the company’s partnership agreement with Booking Holdings.
  • Debt: Yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, and curves had a steepening bias. OATs continue to underperform with 10y spreads widening another 2bps yesterday, as a majority for the confidence vote scheduled for 8 September is looking increasingly questionable.