- Macro: Global equities had a mixed day yesterday with the S&P500 up +0.73%, and Nasdaq up +1.21% while Europe was down -0.06%. In the US, six of the eleven sectors were positive with 47.7% of stocks trading higher. Most of the big tech names had positive days, none more so than Apple, the company’s shares rising +5.1% after it was confirmed the company will commit an additional $100bn to US domestic manufacturing., whereas Super Micro Computer saw its share price fall -18.3% following its lowered guidance. In Europe, BP had a noticeably good day, with the stock up +3.1% after CEO Murray Auchincloss confirmed the company will review its asset portfolio and costs with a promise to “do better” after years of underperformance. Health Care company Bayer AG fell -8.8% after its pharma business missed EBIT targets.In the US, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 3.1% for the week ended 1st August. In Europe, German factory orders came in lower than expected for June, with a contraction of -1.0% vs estimates of +1.1%. UK Construction PMI also fell for July, from 48.8 to 44.3. This morning in Germany June’s Industrial Production fell -3.6% YoY, worse than the –1.0% expected. Germany’s trade balance also fell in June to €14.9bn from €18.5bn previously, as imports grew more than expected. On the macro side today, the main focus will be on the Bank of England when policymakers will make an interest rate call at 12:00. It is expected the rate will be cut from 4.25% to 4.00%. In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended 2nd August will be released at 13:30. Claims expected to rise by 4k to 222k. Final wholesale inventories for June will also be released at 15:00. In Ireland, the unemployment rate for July will be published alongside CPI. The unemployment rate is currently at 4.0% and inflation is at 1.8%.Central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Rehn and Fed’s Bostic.
- Stocks: Last night after market close, CRH release a positive set of Q2 results. Revenue was a slight miss by -0.2% versus consensus, but adjusted EBITDA was +2.6% better. EPS came in +0.8% higher than anticipated. More importantly the company raised its guidance for full year EBITDA by +1.3% at the mid-point. We continue to appreciate CRH’s underlying market demand, its disciplined capital allocation and operational excellence and margin focus, thus are maintaining an Overweight rating, however we have a slightly revised PT of 8721p from 8950p, now incorporating a DCF valuation alongside previous peer-based multiples.This morning Allianz released a solid set of results, with a beat driven by the Property-Casualty segment. In terms of outlook, the company maintained its full year operating profit outlook of €15bn~€17bn. At the current run rate, the company will come in at the higher end of this range. Although we appreciate the quality of Allianz’s business, given the 130% total return from the stock over the last 3 years, and with limited positive catalysts from these results, we continue to rate the stock as a Neutral with a slightly upgraded PT of €328 from €322 (7% downside). The 4.4% dividend yield is below peer average.
- Debt: Core bond yields were slightly higher, continuing the subdued moves of recent days on lack of market moving economic data.
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