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Daily Note 31/07/2025 – Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

31.07.2025



  • Macro Global equities had a mixed day yesterday in the US, while Europe was flat. The S&P500 closed the day -0.12% however the Nasdaq was up +0.15%, aided by healthy macro data. Strong after-market earnings from Meta and Microsoft pushed Nasdaq futures up over +1.3%. Adidas had a particularly bad day, with shares falling -11.5% after the company reported lower than expected Q2 results and a lack of guidance due to potential tariff impacts.The Euro area economy recorded +0.1% growth in Q2, supported by an unexpected +0.3% increase in France and a healthy +0.7% increase in Spain. In the US, growth was more robust, with Q2 GDP coming in at 3% thanks to modest increases in consumer spending (+1.4%) and a noticeable decrease in imports. Net exports added 5 percentage points to GDP.The Federal Reserve kept its target interest rate between 4.25%- 4.50% in a 9-2 vote despite increased pressure from Donald Trump to lower the rate. Fed officials also downgraded their view on the US economy, noting modestly lower H1 economic activity with a solid labour market but somewhat elevated inflation levels.  Economic releases today include in the US, the Federal Reserves preferred inflation measure, the PCE Price Index for June. The index is expected to rise to an annualised rate of 2.5%, up from the 2.3% recorded in May. Initial jobless claims for the week ended the 26th July will also be published. Claims are expected to modestly rise from 217k to 223K over the week. At the same time personal income and spending data for the month of June will be updated. Estimates suggest income will rise by 0.2% MoM whilst spending will increase by 0.4% MoM. In Europe, preliminary monthly and annualised CPI data for France, Germany, Ireland and Italy for July will all be released. The data will also be accompanied by the Eurozone unemployment rate for the month of June. It’s estimated the rate will stay at the same 6.3% noted in May.
  • Stocks We have corporate news from Smurfit Westrock (Q2 Results, slightly better than expected), Shell (H1 results, better than expected) and PTSB (H1 results, better than expected) (see pages 2 to 4)
  • Debt US yields rose after forward markets reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September from 65% to 45% .