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Latest Daily Note

Each day we produce a market commentary outlining critical economic and company developments. We leverage off our global network of analysts and investment professionals to provide clients with critical insights from our local teams first thing in the morning.

Latest Research | 12.11.2025

Daily Note 12/11/2025 - Market View: Day Ahead, Macro, Stocks, Debt Markets

  • Equity Markets: Equity markets had mixed day yesterday with the S&P500 up +0.21% but the Nasdaq was down -0.25%, even as the US Government shutdown is due to end following the Senate’s passing of a temporary funding bill. Europe was stronger up +1.28%.  In the US, ten sectors were in positive territory and 68% of stocks ended higher. Healthcare and Energy were best. Information Technology and Industrials were weakest. Nvidia fell 2.9% on news that Softbank had sold out of the stock. CoreWeave fell c. 16% after management lowered guidance for capex and revenue due to datacentre capacity issues. FedEx rose 5.45% after management provided a positive update at a conference. In Europe, all eleven sectors were in positive territory, with Healthcare and Energy best, whilst Utilities and IT were worst. Payments company Adyen rose c. 8% after providing a 20% growth target at its results. Vodafone rose c. 8% on its German turnaround and dividend increase. Novo Nordisk regained some lost ground rising 6.4% on little news.       
  • Macro: In macro news yesterday, in Europe, the German ZEW Expectations survey for November showed a decline to 38.5 from 39.3, which was below estimates at 41.0 and the Current Situation index remains very weak at -78.7. This morning, we had final October German CPI that was unchanged at +2.3% YoY, and Wholesale Prices that were 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% last month. In the US, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index for October was lower at 98.2 from 98.8 previously and marginally below expectations of 98.3.   
  • Economic releases are fairly limited today with US MBA Mortgage Applications the main highlight. From the central banks it is a very busy day with the Fed’s Barr, Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic & Miran speaking today. From the ECB we have Schnabel and de Guindos and from the BoE, Pill will also be speaking.
  • Stocks: LVMH: (Neutral TP €630, c.0% Upside): Commentary relating to new store openings and minority stake in La Joux-Perret FedEx: (Overweight TP $282 5.3% Upside): FedEx CEO offers updated guidance on Q2 growth.
  • Debt: UK Gilts were the star performer yesterday following the uninspiring labour market data. Bunds and Treasuries were little changed.

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On Mondays, we release our Weekly Trader in which we outline key themes driving market sentiment, a review on critical developments within our preferred sectors, equities commentary and market-moving stories to start the week. Our in-house Investment Committee meets on a weekly basis to craft this strategy, aimed at allowing our clients to dynamically position portfolios and to take advantage of market developments.

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